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At the 2021 small Metal Industry Summit hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Hu Yan, a small metal analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous net, introduced the review and future prospect of China's selenium and tellurium germanium industry in 2021. SMM believes that selenium and tellurium have the opportunity to repair in the fourth quarter, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are still the primary factor determining the price trend. With a stable and small increase in overseas demand and tight domestic raw material supply, germanium prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
Review and Future Prospect of China's selenium, Tellurium and Germanium Industry in 2021
In 2021, the highest selenium price appears from May to June, 3N selenium powder up to 175000 yuan / ton, diselenide up to 120000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, selenium powder increased by 52%, and diselenium increased by 94%. Of course, since the end of June this year, because there are relatively low-cost selenium resources in the market from time to time, they are released from the downstream, which has a great impact on refined selenium and diselenide products. Even though the price of crude selenium in the copper factory remains stable and strong, the second half of the year is still overwhelmed, and selenium prices have so far adjusted back 8% from their peak in May and June.
In the last decade, the highest selenium price appeared in 2011, and the highest refined selenium reached 1.3 million yuan / ton. After that, the general trend is basically a gradual decline. In the early stage of the development of selenium industry, our country's selenium is still mainly imported, and the domestic output is very low, so the price is also relatively high. Later, due to the improvement of smelting technology in copper enterprises, the treatment process of anode mud is better, so the domestic supply is still relatively large.
In 2015, the lowest point in the picture, with the fermentation of the Pan-Asian incident, the price of domestic selenium products suffered another round of price cuts. The price of 99.9% selenium powder fell all the way down from 370000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2015 to 90,000 yuan / ton in June 2016, an alarming decline. Three years later, when Fanya's 300-ton selenium stock really began to be disposed of at the end of 2019, the market reaction was not as panicked as it was in 2015. it shows that participants in the selenium industry have become more mature, more stable and have a longer-term vision in their market practice over the years.
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According to the incomplete statistics of Nonferrous Network, China's selenium output in 2020 is 1750 tons, which is expected to be 1400 tons in 2021, down 20% from the same period last year. In 2020, selenium imports were 1473 tons and exports were 486tons. According to the data from January to August this year, imports fell 12% year-on-year and exports fell 28% year-on-year. According to the estimated expected imports, the apparent consumption of SMM this year is expected to be 2346 tons, down 14% from the same period last year. Domestic selenium production and imports are neck and neck, or there is still a relatively high dependence on imported selenium.
China's selenium production in 2021 is expected to be 1400 tons, down 20% from the same period last year, and apparent consumption is expected to be 2346 tons, down 14% from the same period last year. From January to August of 2021, China imported 842 tons of selenium, down 12 percent from the same period last year, while imports from Canada accounted for 318 tons, accounting for 38 percent of the total. Apart from Canada, Japan ranks second and South Korea third.
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Selenium, because of its good chemical properties, has a wide range of downstream applications, mainly related to metallurgy, ceramics, glass, electronics, agriculture, feed, medical and food health care and other industries such as cosmetics and electroplating. Well, the largest proportion of this is still in the field of metallurgy, with consumption accounting for 56%. Glass and ceramics account for 12% and 10% respectively, electronics 8%, agriculture 5%, feed, medical and food health care 3-4% respectively.
In the largest metallurgical field, selenium is mainly added in the form of selenium dioxide as a catalyst for electrolytic manganese. Based on the domestic output of 1.31 million tons of electrolytic manganese last year, the consumption of electrolytic manganese is about 1900 tons. Let's take a look at the picture on the right about the start-up of electrolytic manganese this year.
The operating rate of manganese plants in the main producing areas of the "Manganese Triangle" and Guangxi in 2021 increased first and then decreased, because the terminal stainless steel and special steel plants had a greater impact on limited electricity and environmental protection. In addition, the National Manganese Technical Association was established this year, so the overall supply of electrolytic manganese has declined steadily, in addition, under the dual influence of environmental protection and power restriction in the second half of the year, as well as the environmental protection factors in Hunan, the operating rate is relatively low. The overall start-up situation in Ningxia is relatively good, with an average monthly operating rate of 58%, while Hunan has the lowest average of 34%.
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In a price change since 2010, the highest price of tellurium ingots in May 2011 was 2.88 million yuan / ton, close to 3 million yuan. Later, the price also fell slowly all the way, and at the end of 2015, it was also affected by the Pan-Asian incident, falling below 200000 yuan / ton at the lowest, and the later market gradually repaired. In the past two years, the domestic tellurium market as a whole continues to be repaired. The highest value in May this year is close to 600000 yuan / ton. To this position, the society gradually accumulated more and more sellable tellurium ingots social inventory, so the price to a certain position began to go down. In addition, from the perspective of demand, consumption in the refrigeration industry remained relatively low from June to the third quarter of this year, with fewer domestic orders and prices continuing to decline.
In fact, the annual output of tellurium ingots in China has not changed much. In 2020 last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, it decreased to about 550 tons. The raw materials of tellurium in China are relatively abundant this year, and the production of Daye Refinery is generally stable, with an estimated output of 650 tons, an increase of 18% over last year.
In terms of tellurium export, tellurium export is divided into two products, boron telluride and cadmium telluride. On the whole, the export volume of boron tellurium and cadmium telluride has increased significantly after 2019. This is closely related to the rapid development of overseas photovoltaic solar energy industry. From January to August of 2021, China exported 1455 tons of boron and tellurium, a slight increase of 3.4 percent over the same period last year, and exports of cadmium telluride were 308 tons, down 6 percent from the same period last year.
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Judging from the history of nearly a decade, the highest price of germanium ingots appeared in September 2014, exceeding 12 million per ton. Similarly, starting from the third quarter of 2015, the market panicked that the prices of all kinds of small metal products fell due to the ferment of the Pan-Asian incident.
China accounts for 42% of the world's germanium resources and 75% of the world's output in 2020. More than 80% of China's germanium resources are concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. From January to August 2021, China exported 24918 tons of forged germanium and its products, an increase of 22.6 percent over the same period last year, mainly to Russia, Hong Kong, China and Germany.
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Manufacturing PMI began to decline month by month in March, rising to 49.6% in September, with demand falling significantly. Industrial value added rose 3.1% in September, the lowest this year. The adjustment of global energy structure is still the trend of the times, and the photovoltaic industry is rising all over the world. At present, the three major economies in the world have set clear targets for the renewable energy revolution. 2020 is the first year of carbon neutralization in China, and policies for the photovoltaic and renewable energy industries have been issued intensively. Since the beginning of the year, the double control of energy consumption and power cuts for non-ferrous metals and their downstream industries have been required to reduce production throughout the year. China's photovoltaic power generation capacity is expected to increase by 55GW in 2021, and the cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 308GW.
SMM believes that selenium and tellurium have the opportunity to repair in the fourth quarter, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are still the primary factor determining the price trend. With a stable and small increase in overseas demand and tight domestic raw material supply, germanium prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
