A five-fold increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate market "grab" sound!

Last night, the electrolyte additive leader Duofuoduo announced that it planned to build a lithium hexafluorophosphate and additive project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons in Shanxi Yangquan High-tech Zone. It is worth noting that on July 18 this year, Polyfluoroduo just announced an expansion plan of 100000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, less than a month ago.

The hot demand has led to frequent expansion of production. Today, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to 450000 yuan / ton, jumping 20, 000 yuan / ton a day, compared with about 70, 000 yuan / ton quoted in September last year, an annual increase of more than 500%.

Thanks to the skyrocketing price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, polyfluorodo has tasted sweetness. According to the semi-annual report, the company achieved an operating income of 2.905 billion yuan in the first half of 2021, an increase of 67.68 percent over the same period last year, and a net profit of 308 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 1859.97 percent over the same period last year.

As of today's close, PFD quoted 53.58 yuan, up 1.86%, up more than 150% so far this year, and more than 400% since last year's low.

Under the outbreak of demand, the rapid horse-racing enclosure is far more than Fluoro, Skyline shares, Yongtai Technology, God-given materials and so on are also waiting for the opportunity to move. Since June this year, a number of companies in the industry have announced production expansion, with a total expansion capacity of about 280000 tons.

one. One item is hard to get.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate is not only the most important solute in lithium battery electrolyte, but also the most widely used electrolyte solute, accounting for about 40% of the electrolyte cost.

In the first half of the year, the demand for new energy vehicles in the domestic and European markets increased, leading to an increase in power battery shipments. Due to the large base and rapid growth of power batteries, it has brought a huge increase in the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate.

From the point of view of supply, lithium hexafluorophosphate in China originally relied on imports, and Polyfluoroduo is the first listed company in China to formally produce lithium hexafluorophosphate. In recent years, with the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the degree of import dependence has decreased significantly.

According to statistics, the output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China reached 21300 tons in the first half of this year, close to that of 2019 and an increase of 134% compared with the same period in 2020.

However, the substantial increase in production capacity is still unable to meet the demand of the downstream market, and the popularity of "long orders" largely reflects the tight supply of the market.

At present, the production capacity of several major lithium hexafluorophosphate production enterprises, such as polyfluoroduo and divine materials, has long been locked by major customers such as BYD and Ningde era, accounting for more than 70% of the total output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China.

On July 17th, Duofuoduo signed three product sales contracts with customers, including BYD purchasing no less than 6460 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate from the company, and Funeng Technology purchasing no less than 1700 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and EnchemCo from the company. , Ltd . Purchase 1800 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate from the subsidiary Henan Nonferrous.

In terms of divine materials, Ningde Kaixin, a wholly-owned subsidiary, signed a "material supply Framework Agreement" with Ningde Times, which agreed that during the validity of the agreement (from the effective date of the agreement to June 30, 2022), Ningde Kaixin will supply Ningde Times with a corresponding quantity of electrolyte products with an estimated use of lithium hexafluorophosphate of 15000 tons. Ningde era needs to pay 675 million yuan in advance to Ningde Kaixin.

Whether it's a prepaid loan or a long-term contract. On the one hand, it shows that the head battery enterprises have the ability to lock orders in advance to protect the supply chain; on the other hand, it also shows that the concentration of the electrolyte market is increasing, and the leading enterprises have taken away more cakes.

In a survey, senior executives of the company said, "at present (lithium hexafluorophosphate) some peer prices have been sold to 470000, and now the company basically does not quote prices, because the company's existing output has basically been locked out. Except for very few special cases, the company may sign some more loose orders, and the rest is basically carried out according to the contract price."

At present, many lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers have suspended quotations for some time, which means that the production capacity of the relevant manufacturers has long been locked or can not keep up with the market demand, in short, it is difficult to obtain.

two. How about the future?

According to public data, the total demand of the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry in 2021 is 65000 tons. Combined with market stock and production, the gap is about 6000 tons, 17000 tons in 2022, 35000 tons in 2023, and more than 60, 000 tons in 2024.

The judgment of the industry is that lithium hexafluorophosphate project has high entry barriers, high investment intensity, long production expansion cycle, and the increase of supply in the short term is very limited. At present, the leading enterprises have a stronger pricing power in the industry because of their large production capacity, stable quality and low cost. In the context of tight supply and demand, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will remain high for some time to come.

China Merchants Securities expects that after this round of production expansion, the combined production capacity concentration of Tianzhi, Polyfluoroduo and Xintai next year will be close to 70%, an increase of 15-20% over 2019-2020. If the actual shipments are taken into account, the share of the three enterprises will be higher, the industry structure will be more orderly, and the industry advantages will be further concentrated to the leading enterprises.

At the same time, in the context of rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, in order to reduce the negative impact of price increases and supply damage under supply contraction, mainstream positive or battery companies such as Ningde era are stepping up efforts to bind upstream resources by seeking cooperation with upstream resources. In the future, there may be more and more long orders around electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate.

In addition, the new additives will also bring higher returns to the electrolyte link.

When the head company continues to expand the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the competition for the supply chain around additives and new additives is also intensifying. This year, conventional VC additives have been seriously in short supply, and FEC may also be tense in the future.

And FSI, LFO, DTD and other new additives also began to be used in large quantities, which significantly increased the output value and added value of the electrolyte, and will further open the gap between the head electrolyte and its supply chain companies and their counterparts.

three. The end

In the next few years, as the demand for new energy vehicles is boosted, the market demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will continue to grow, and prices are likely to continue to rise in the future.

Prior to this, some production enterprises have said frankly that lithium hexafluorophosphate has a good profit when the price is 60,000 yuan / ton. Nowadays, under the exorbitant profits of the industry, relevant enterprises have invested in expanding production, and lithium hexafluorophosphate has even attracted the cross-border layout of listed companies such as Lizhong Group.

However, despite the prosperity of the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry, the investment layout still needs to be cautious to reduce the risks of overcapacity, plummeting prices and tight capital chains.