Tianfeng Securities: lithium hydroxide continues to lead the rise of rare earth magnetic materials to benefit from high-end volume

Zhou's point of view: lithium hydroxide continues to lead the rise, rare earth magnetic materials benefit from the high-end volume of lithium prices to enter the third stage-lithium hydroxide is expected to lead the rise. We put forward the prediction that "after the price increase of lithium carbonate, the prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium concentrate will soon enter a major rising stage, and the performance of lithium salt enterprises will improve quarter by quarter." recently, battery-grade lithium hydroxide has risen continuously to 88500 / ton, with a cumulative increase of 9% in May, mainly due to the gradual expansion of overseas high-nickel ternary battery models since April, and the increase in export orders for lithium hydroxide. The ternary ratio of high nickel in China also continues to grow, accelerating the global trend of high nickel, and the price of lithium hydroxide is expected to take over after lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate, becoming a leading rising variety in the third stage, further exceeding the price of lithium carbonate. It is optimistic that the performance of lithium salt enterprises will improve quarter by quarter. Pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Yahua Group, Shengxin Lithium Energy and so on.

The structural inflection point of supply and demand is coming, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is increasing, and the profit space of the rare earth industry chain is opened. Supply rigidity optimization, after production capacity climbing and raw material inventory elimination from 2017 to 2020, China's rare earth quota at the supply side may increase steadily, and supply rigidity optimization. In the short and medium term, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners / NdFeB permeability of domestic household appliances continues to increase, which is expected to lead to an annual growth rate of more than 60% for air conditioning magnetic materials from 2021 to 2022. In the long run, new energy vehicles around the world maintain a high growth rate, and it is expected that with the increase in permeability, the demand for high-performance NdFeB will pull more than 60,000 tons (by 2025), consumer electronics will stabilize, and leading magnetic material factories will continue to expand. the linked rise in prices of light and rare earths brought about by replenishment demand is expected to continue, and the gross profit margin of the industrial chain will fully return. Pay attention to Shenghe Resources, Northern rare Earth, Minmetals rare Earth, Jinli permanent Magnet, Zhenghai Magnetic material.

Carbon neutralization brings the advanced chain of aluminum industry, and power cuts in Yunnan are expected to increase the profitability of aluminum. More than 85% of the energy structure of electrolytic aluminum is still thermal power. Considering the increase in the proportion of clean energy and the bottleneck of hydropower resources in southwest China, since mid-May, power-consuming enterprises in various states in Yunnan Province have begun emergency off-peak power limits. The existing capacity is short-term limited, the release of new capacity is less than the growth in demand, and the new capacity with the advantage of hydropower cost is expected to maintain a high profit advantage in the new round of upward aluminum prices. At the same time, the total amount of electrolytic aluminum ceiling can be controlled, with the growth of demand, the proportion of recycled aluminum is expected to increase gradually. From the perspective of overall supply and demand, electrolytic aluminum downstream construction / electricity / automobile, the cycle after the completion of real estate leads to demand growth, alumina continues to remain low, and high profitability of the industry is expected to continue. Recommend cloud aluminum shares, pay attention to Shenhuo shares, Tianshan aluminum industry, China Hongqiao.

Metal price: precious metal price correction. Us economic data / employment data were strong, gold prices responded to a pullback of 1.22% and 1.65% for gold and silver, respectively, and 2.33% for Shanghai gold. Zinc prices rose copper and aluminum pullback. Last week, except for the 4.3 per cent rise in zinc prices, the base metals were adjusted, LME copper and aluminum were adjusted by 4 per cent respectively, while lead, nickel and tin fell little. The more economically sensitive copper and zinc and the electrolytic aluminum related to the real estate post-cycle are expected to continue to repair and rebound. The price of rare earths has been adjusted slightly. Last week, praseodymium neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide adjusted 1.4%, 3%, 1.4%. The overall warming of magnetic material demand downstream replenishment is expected to bring major light and light rare earth varieties price center upward.

Titanium cobalt rose antimony pullback. Last week, small metal CSM titanium and cobalt rebounded by 2.11% and 0.6%, while antimony and lithium carbonate were adjusted by 1.8% and 1%.

Risk hints: the risk of changes in the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve; the risk of a weaker-than-expected global economy, a sharp fall in commodity prices, lower-than-expected demand for new energy and a much higher-than-expected supply of lithium and