Burst | Lithium Iron Phosphate accelerates to usher in a "renaissance era"!

Following the launch of lithium iron phosphate models by Tesla and Xiaopeng, Weilai, which has always focused on the high-end route and the standard BBA, has also joined the camp.

Recently, there are media reports that Ulai will upgrade the existing 70-degree (kWh) battery pack. The new battery pack uses lithium iron phosphate battery, which is scheduled to be released in the fourth quarter of this year. According to senior sources in contact with the Ningde era, "the new battery is still supplied in the Ningde era, and B-sample testing is already being done."

In fact, as early as last year, there was news that "Weilai had contracted a lithium iron phosphate battery production line in the Ningde era". It is said that the lithium iron phosphate version was already being tested at that time, and the relevant model is expected to be launched this year.

However, it was later proved that the production line under Weilai was originally reserved for Tesla in the Ningde era and was used to produce 100-degree ternary battery bags. In other words, the upgrade of lithium iron phosphate battery pack by Weilai is not the rumored production line, but may have to open a new production line. Of course, it doesn't matter which production line Weilai uses, the important thing is that the iron lithium model of Weilai is really coming!

With Tesla, Weilai and so on have entered the game, lithium iron phosphate against three, and have more sufficient strength, or will usher in a brilliant "renaissance era." Not long ago, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, said that Ningde era will gradually increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the next three to four years, while the proportion of ternary batteries will gradually decrease. And BYD is determined to "fight" with the "iron lithium" blade battery to the end.

01 lithium iron phosphate version model sales "myth"

Speaking of, compared with other competitors' lithium iron phosphate strategy, Weilai is obviously half a beat behind. As early as last June, Tesla Model 3 lithium iron phosphate version has appeared in the "model catalogue". BYD Han, which has a blade battery, went on sale last year. Since then, driven by the star effect, more and more star best-selling models are scrambling to replace lithium iron phosphate batteries.

According to relevant statistics, lithium iron phosphate has been launched in 6 of the top 10 new energy models sold in the Chinese market in 2020. Popular models such as Tesla Model3, BYD Han and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In addition, pure electric passenger cars such as BAIC EC/EU series, SAIC GM Wuling Baojun E series, Changan Auchan, Hezhong new energy Nafu series and other pure electric passenger cars have also launched models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Entering the threshold of 2021, the young, trendy Great Wall Euler announced at the beginning of the year that the pet version of Euler Black Cat Meng was officially launched, and its battery pack was changed from ternary battery to lithium iron phosphate battery. Xiaopeng Automobile also took the lead in launching the lithium iron phosphate version P7 and G3 in the "New Power of car Building" in early March. In addition, ideal Automobile also said in its internal letter that future models will cover the price range of 150000 yuan to 500000 yuan, and it is reported that its low-cost models will also use lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Behind the trend of lithium iron phosphate models is the power of lithium iron as a "cost reduction killer", and with the promotion and application of CTP and blade battery technology, the energy density of the system has been "changed against heaven", resulting in the outbreak of sales of supporting models.

Take Tesla as an example, CITIC Securities reported that Tesla (Shanghai) produced Model 3 standard battery life upgrade to replace lithium iron phosphate battery, according to the unit battery pack 0.10 yuan / Wh cost savings, each battery pack can reduce the cost by about 5000 yuan. In 2020, Tesla, supported by lithium iron phosphate batteries, has lowered the price of producing Model 3 in his Shanghai factory from more than 300,000 yuan to 249900 yuan, thus helping Tesla realize the "myth" of annual sales of more than 100000 vehicles in the Chinese market.

02 is expected to replace three yuan to become "dominant"?

The hot sale of related models has led to a substantial increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to the data, sales of ternary batteries in the Chinese market in 2020 were 34.8 GWH, down 34.4% from the same period last year, while sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries were 30.8 GWH, up 49.2% from the same period last year. In the "vehicle catalogue (first batch of 2021)", the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery models has reached 78%, of which the proportion of matching in passenger cars has also increased from the previous high of 40% to 50%.

It is obvious that the pattern of the power battery industry, which was absolutely dominated by ternary batteries, is undergoing drastic changes, and lithium iron phosphate batteries will usher in a new trend of rise. Manufacturers with iron and lithium production lines, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy, Ruipu Energy, Honeycomb Energy, AVIC Lithium, and so on, will continue to benefit from it. Industry insiders predict that there will be a big year of growth in demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021, which is expected to reach 80% year-on-year growth.

In fact, many enterprises are accelerating production expansion and preparation for war. In addition to the above-mentioned Ningde era to increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, BYD blade battery capacity is also expanding rapidly. It is reported that its Chongqing, Changsha, Bengbu, Guiyang, Hefei five production bases have been completed, under construction and planning blade battery capacity is close to 135GWh. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, in less than a month, Yiwei LiNeng quickly issued two announcements, with a total investment of 4.9 billion yuan to expand production aimed at the passenger car lithium iron phosphate battery market.

Citic Securities pointed out that at present, mainstream overseas new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla and Daimler have also made clear the path of lithium iron phosphate battery. It is expected that other overseas car companies, such as BMW and Volkswagen, will also choose a matching scheme for lithium iron phosphate battery in their electrification path, and lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to achieve global support. With the launch of more models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will remain strong for a long time.

According to a research report released by the international market research organization Wood Mackenzie, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to surpass nickel cobalt manganate ternary batteries to become the dominant energy storage chemicals in the next decade, and will gradually occupy a dominant position in the field of electric vehicles after gaining a firm foothold in the energy storage market.