Zeng Yuqun and Shen Nanpeng on Jian: be optimistic about Lithium Iron Phosphate to increase the proportion of hydrogen fuel is more suitable for Energy Storage solid State batteries

At present, the development of new energy vehicles is in full swing. As the most important battery part of automobile electrification, what is the development trend of it in the future? Which material-dominated technical route will prevail in 3-5 years' time? Is it lithium iron phosphate, high nickel ternary or hydrogen fuel cell? When will the stir-fried solid-state battery enter the commercial mass production period?

On April 9, to celebrate the 125th anniversary of the founding of the school, Shanghai Jiaotong University "asked about the Future-High-end Dialogue between New Energy and New Energy Smart Automobile entrepreneurs Alumni" was held on the Minhang campus of Jiaotong University. Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuqun, Sequoia Capital Global Managing partner Shen Nanpeng, Mingshi Capital founder Huang Mingming, ideal Automobile President Shen Yanan and other alumni gathered together to discuss the above issues.

The proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery will gradually increase.

In response to the question "what is the proportion of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries in three or four years' time", Zeng Yuqun said that batteries of both materials will be made in Ningde era. At present, with more and more charging piles, the range of electric vehicles does not need to be so long, because lithium iron phosphate batteries are cheaper, so their growth rate will be very fast, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate will gradually increase, while ternary batteries will gradually decrease. But there are still some high-end cars that need long battery life, so the ternary battery market with high energy density will still exist.

"it's not appropriate to keep asking lithium iron phosphate or ternary (which is better or worse). Not all investors who are really skilled in research and development ask like this. But it is not necessarily lithium iron phosphate or three yuan (to win). " Zeng Yuqun said.

In addition, Zeng Yuqun said that changes in the structure of battery products will also have a huge impact on the upstream material supply chain. On the one hand, the amount of nickel and cobalt will be reduced, on the other hand, the amount of other materials, such as phosphate or lithium carbonate, will still be the same. However, lithium carbonate will also be reduced because the amount of lithium carbonate used in ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries is different.

Hydrogen fuel cell is more suitable for energy storage.

Hydrogen fuel cell is also one of the star paths of automobile electrification. In this regard, Zeng Yuqun said that the cost of fuel cell vehicles can not compete with electric vehicles, but hydrogen energy storage is still very good, so it is better to do an incremental program for fuel cells.

Shen Yanan, president of ideal Automobile, said that at present, due to the problem of charging, the ideal choice is to release and sell added models first, which can save a lot of energy when most of the vehicles in our country are used in cities. But ideal is already developing pure electric models, and is considering ultra-high-speed charging technology to achieve a 10-minute charge of 400 to 500 kilometers, and the all-electric model is expected to be launched in 2023.

The all-solid-state battery will not "get in the car" for 3-5 years.

When talking about when solid-state batteries will be commercialized, Zeng Yuqun said frankly, "to put it bluntly, if solid-state batteries are really commercialized and go to the head of the car, I think it is very difficult (within 3 or 5 years). I don't dare to say. I think in a car made in 3 or 5 years, the batteries carried are not all solid-state batteries."

But he also warned of short-term investment opportunities for solid-state batteries, saying that Toyota will show off its cars with solid-state batteries at this year's Olympic Games, when solid-state batteries will receive another wave of attention.

Domestic car companies will give birth to the world's leading battery manufacturers to play a foundation-building role.

Zeng Yuqun is very optimistic about the future of electric vehicles, and he estimates that 40% of the car stock market in 10 years' time will be new energy vehicles. "if there is full competition in the smart car and new energy vehicle market in the future, the dominant players will gradually emerge, and there may be only about 10 car companies left in the world. I think 70% of the enterprises will come from China."

He believes that in this process, battery manufacturers set the stage for car companies and lay the foundation for moving bricks, and car companies perform a variety of different plays on the stage. they are a big industry that can produce cars as a means of travel. it can also produce an intelligent terminal, and in the end, there will be a very great company.

Under the great changes of the times, there are three major strategies for the future of Ningde era: 1) take power battery as the core to replace mobile fossil energy; 2) combine energy storage with new energy generation to replace fixed fossil energy such as coal; 3) combine intelligent and electric vehicles in specific areas, such as mining.

In addition, there are two ways of capacity allocation in Ningde era: 1) buy production line and package production line. Car companies with sufficient cash flow and confidence in the next three or five years can contract the production lines of the Ningde era for more than one year; 2) locking capacity. For companies with insufficient cash flow, they can establish a long-term cooperation with Ningde era. "for example, if your output fluctuates within plus or minus 15% every year, everyone will be fine. If it is low, how much money will I pay you to cooperate with you in other forms such as this?"