SMM Evening Comments (Mar 29): Shanghai nonferrous metals rose across the board, tin advanced 1.88%

SHANGHAI, Mar 29 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed higher across the board on Monday March 29. The giant container ship blocking the Suez Canal was refloated on Monday and is being secured, maritime services company Inchcape said in a Twitter post.

Tin was the best performer with a rise of 1.88%. Copper rose 1.16%, aluminium advanced 0.99%, nickel climbed 1.77%, zinc increased 1.25% and lead went up 1.07%.

The ferrous complex also rose across the board. Iron ore increased 4.56%, rebar rose 2.56%, and hot-rolled coil climbed 3.72%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2105 copper contract finished the day 1.16% higher at 66,340 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 50,000 lots to 145,000 lots.

Most US bond yields rose. As the yield of US bonds continued to soar, the market's expectation for the appreciation of the US dollar was getting stronger. The upward movement of the US dollar put some pressure on copper prices. In terms of data, in January and February, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 1,114.01 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79 times year on year, an increase of 72.1% over January and February 2019, and an average increase of 31.2% in both years, maintaining the rapid growth since the second half of last year. The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to the highest level in a year in March. Market sentiment has not been completely suppressed by short positions.

Federal Reserve Waller's Speech and Bank of England mortgage license data will continue to come under scrutiny tonight.

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2105 aluminium contract finished the day 0.99% higher at 17,405 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 1,789 lots to 219,710 lots.

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2105 zinc contract slid to an intraday low of 21,635 yuan/mt and closed up 1.25% at 21,800 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 888 lots to 83,176 lots. TCs for domestic refined zinc were lowered, and zinc ingot social stocks began to decline at the weekend, which supported the overall upward trend of zinc prices. TCs will be continue to be monitored. Whether the contract could stand firm above the 10-day and five-day moving average will be monitored tonight. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2106 nickel contract ended the day 1.77% higher at 123,750 yuan/mt today. Open interest rose 1,645 lots to 136,683 lots.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2105 lead contract ended the day 1.07% higher at 15,140 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 244 lots to 36,813 lots. Social inventories of lead ingots across Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Tianjin fell 3,700 mt from last Friday March 26 to 52,500 mt as of Monday March 29, an SMM survey showed. The stocks were down 10,600 mt from last Monday March 22.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2105 tin contract fell to a session low of 173,610 yuan/mt and finished the day 0.37% higher at 175,300 yuan/mt today. Open interest fell 2,804 lots to 19,673 lots. The contract is expected to keep fluctuating in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from 176,000 yuan/mt today. Support below will be seen from 170,000 yuan/mt today.