[SMM Analysis] it is still difficult for the price of lithium iron phosphate to rise before the year 2000. The market share of lithium iron phosphate will expand in 2021.

SMM12, March 14: since the second half of this year, more and more pure electric passenger cars are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Due to the optimization of battery structure and the improvement of battery pack energy density to meet reasonable mileage, coupled with high safety, high temperature and low cost, many car companies have begun to choose iron lithium batteries. If BYD has been focusing on the lithium iron phosphate battery route, it will gradually reduce the use of ternary batteries in the future. Hongguang MINI models are equipped with ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries, or considering the cost advantage of lithium iron batteries, the proportion of lithium iron batteries has increased since September. What will be the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in new energy vehicles next year?

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the number of cars loaded with power batteries in China was 10.6 GWH in November, up 68.8 percent from the same period last year and 80.9 percent from the previous month. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 4.7 GWH, up 91.4% from the same period last year and 95.5% from the previous month.

In the first 11 months, lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded a total of 17.5 GWH, accounting for 34.5% of the total loading, an increase of 13.0% over the same period last year, which has exceeded the level of the same period last year.

From the announcement of new products of the 339th batch of "Road Motor vehicle production Enterprises and products announcement" recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, we can see that there are 217 models of 102 enterprises applying for this batch of new energy vehicle products, of which 14 enterprises have 22 models of plug-in hybrid products.

Among the mixed passenger models, there are 4 types of ternary batteries and 9 types of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased significantly. For example, all six models of BYD cars are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.

It is worth noting that Xiaopeng Automobile, a new force in car building, is also the first to declare lithium iron phosphate models. According to 339 batches, Xiaopeng declared a G3 model with a lithium iron phosphate battery and a battery core provided by Ningde Times.

And enterprises are also more active in the layout of lithium iron phosphate batteries. At present, the capacity utilization of the industry leader German Nano is nearly saturated, and it is expected that the project will reach production in the first quarter of next year, which is expected to release 30,000 tons of new lithium iron phosphate production capacity.

Prior to this, the construction of China's first pure electric port tugboat officially started in Lianyungang, using a lithium iron phosphate power battery pack with 100 million lithium energy. The ship can be filled in two modes: fast charge and slow charge, fast charge for 2 hours and slow charge for 6-8 hours. In addition, Fujian Province's first electric high-end inland river cruise ship "Minjiang Star" also successfully made its maiden voyage. The ship's power battery system adopts Ningde era large-capacity and high-safety lithium iron phosphate cell, equipped with 936kWh power, and can run continuously for 8 hours.

SMM believes that at present, BAIC New Energy, Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Automobile and SAIC have all begun to use iron-lithium batteries, including mixed cars. From January to November this year, iron-lithium batteries accounted for 35% of the installed capacity of power batteries. SMM expects iron-lithium batteries to account for 40% of new energy vehicles in 2021. 45%.

In addition to the new energy vehicle market, the demand for iron-lithium batteries in the shipping, energy storage and electric two-wheeler industries has also increased significantly. With the upgrading of 5G technology, a large number of 5G base stations have been built in China, which is expected to exceed 600000 this year. In addition, according to the feedback of customers in the industry, the proportion of iron lithium batteries in the electric two-wheeler market will increase significantly next year. Overall, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will increase by 55% next year compared with the same period last year.

According to SMM research, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) has been rising since November 13. As of today, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34750 yuan / ton, rebounding 2.2% from the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

"Click to view the spot historical price of cobalt lithium.

The terminal market in the fourth quarter has improved to drive the price of lithium salt to rise rapidly. The price of lithium iron phosphate has been low for a long time, and the cost pressure has increased. In mid-November, the price increased by 1000-1500 yuan per ton. Industrial carbon prices continued to rise in December, iron and lithium enterprises intend to continue to raise prices, but near the end of the year downstream battery companies are more difficult to accept the price increase, and the price increase is also very difficult to transmit to the downstream, some large factories have hoarded raw materials, lithium salt prices have little impact on it, small factories choose to reduce production and maintain costs. Despite the rising demand, long-term bargaining power of iron and lithium enterprises is weak, coupled with the market is still overcapacity, SMM expects lithium iron phosphate prices to rise before the Spring Festival is still more difficult.