SMM, Oct. 16:
Battery and downstream end market: according to the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 136000 and 138000 respectively in September, an increase of 48% and 67.7% respectively over the same period last year, and both production and sales set a new record in September. Among them, the passenger car market is growing obviously, and the B-class market, A00 and both ends of the market are developing at the same time. In September, Hongguang MINI production and sales continued to grow month-on-month, but also maintained the first position, in addition, Tesla Model 3, BYD "Han" and car building new power model production and sales also increased accordingly. China's power battery production totaled 8.6 GWH in September, up 12.7 percent from a year earlier and 15.7 percent from a month earlier, according to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance. Among them, the output of ternary batteries was 4.8 GWH, accounting for 55.2% of the total output, up 0.7% from the same period last year and 8.8% from the previous year; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 3.8 GWH, accounting for 44.6% of the total output, up 34% from the same period last year and 27.5% from the previous year. In September, ternary batteries maintained steady growth and still accounted for a large share of the passenger car market, among which the demand for ternary batteries of 5 series increased significantly. The higher growth rate of iron-lithium batteries is mainly due to the substantial increase in BYD's "Han" production, superimposed by SAIC-GM Wuling this month to increase the proportion of iron-lithium installed in the Ningde era. In addition, Chery Automobile, SAIC, Hezhong New Energy and other car companies also have a substantial increase in iron-lithium installation. It is expected that with the addition of iron-lithium version Model 3 in the future, the share of iron-lithium batteries in passenger cars will continue to increase.
Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt intermediates: spot prices of electrolytic cobalt fell this week. After the festival, the order of electrolytic cobalt inquiry is sporadic, the demand is depressed, the willingness of traders to ship goods is enhanced, and the transaction price may continue to decline. Cobalt intermediate prices are flat this week. Recently, cobalt intermediate products are talking about the long order next year, zero single quotations are rising, inquiries are also increasing, and the transaction price may rise slightly. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt this week is 26.8-275000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2500 yuan / ton lower than last week. The prices of SMM cobalt intermediate products are between $11.6 and $12.10 per pound, the average price is the same as last week.
Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the price of cobalt salt is flat this week. Downstream power ternary demand is high, cobalt sulfate is still in short supply from September to October, the price has increased, but the price transmission is still difficult. In October, the demand for cobalt chloride is still high, the confidence of the smelter is enhanced, the supplier of low-price shipments is planned to be reduced, and the price of cobalt chloride may be stable. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM this week is 5.3-56000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 6. 3-66000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate is 2.7-27500 yuan / ton, the average price is 150 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Cobalt tetroxide: the price of cobalt tetroxide is the same this week. Cobalt tetroxide in short supply structure appears, downstream plans to reduce prices, to the end of the month to talk about November orders, transaction prices or a slight decline. The current price of cobalt tetroxide in SMM this week is 20.5-215000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Ternary precursor: the price of the precursor fell on Wednesday. In terms of power market, the price of cobalt salt fluctuates slightly recently, while the price of nickel salt remains basically unchanged. The trading volume in the downstream market this week is not much, and a few material factories purchase remaining October orders. The overall demand of the power market is good, but the end market takes into account cost control, coupled with the bearish price of raw materials, there is still pressure on the price of the precursor. In addition, orders in the small power and digital market declined in October, and the market competition was fierce. Some enterprises began to ship goods at reduced prices, and there was also a small number of dumping phenomena. The price of the digital model of the ternary precursor 523 dropped to about 78000 yuan / ton, while the selling price of individual enterprises was even lower. The power market price is affected by it, the low amplitude price decreases slightly, if the downstream continues to depress the price, the precursor price may continue to fall. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 8.1-83000 yuan / ton this week, down 1000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor is 8.4-86000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 8.9-93500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (811) is 9.85-104000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium carbonate: industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have risen slightly this week, with mainstream transactions in the range of 3.40-38000 yuan / ton and 3.95-42000 yuan / ton, respectively. The first-line lithium salt factory has signed the order in November, and there are few spot transactions. The mainstream spot turnover is concentrated in the second echelon lithium salt factories such as Sichuan and Jiangxi. Due to production cuts by large factories and urgent downstream purchases, demand has shifted to second-tier lithium salt plants such as Sichuan and Jiangxi, resulting in tensions at the supply side, resulting in a slight rise in lithium salt prices. However, the volume of some small factories is small, and the quality has not been recognized by the material factory, and the price is temporarily stable. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate this week is 3.95-42000 yuan / ton, up 5000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium carbonate is 3. 4-38000 yuan / ton, which is 250 yuan / ton higher than that of last week.
Lithium hydroxide: the price of lithium hydroxide remains stable this week. Recently, the balance of lithium hydroxide has reached an impasse, and the director of a large lithium salt factory is mainly supplying overseas. The inventory of small and medium-sized enterprises is overstocked, and the price center continues to be below the cost line, with little room for decline. With the release of production capacity of a large factory in Sichuan in October, lithium hydroxide storage will continue to deteriorate, and prices are expected to remain stable in October. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 4.6-52000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 4.1-43000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt is flat this week. Lithium cobalt overseas tablet, notebook demand has increased, according to research demand decreased slightly in November, to the end of the month to talk about November orders, the transaction price may be reduced. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt is 21.8-226000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week.
Ternary materials: the price of ternary materials remains unchanged this week. This week, the price of the conventional 523 ternary precursor fell slightly, the price of lithium salt rose slightly, and the power market mostly closed in the last ten days. The recent market transaction is less, and the price of ternary materials remains unchanged for the time being. Small power and digital market, taking into account the slight decline in downstream demand, the terminal market price reduction is serious, the transaction prices of some material factories have declined. The price of SMM ternary material (523) is 11.35-123500 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622) is 13.45-145500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 811) is 15.55-170000 yuan per ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged this week. The price of lithium salt has risen slightly this week, the demand for iron lithium in the passenger car market continues to increase, and the new production capacity of some large iron lithium factories is also close to full production, but the overall market is still in oversupply, making it difficult for iron and lithium prices to rise. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 3.3-37000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 2.8-29500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate remains unchanged this week. Industrial carbon prices rose slightly, downstream small power and digital market orders are better, some enterprises are close to full production, but downstream battery enterprises are under pressure on prices, and it is difficult for lithium manganate enterprises to raise prices. The price of SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) is 2.10-28000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 3.3-35500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Negative materials: the prices of artificial graphite and natural graphite remain unchanged this week. Recently, the price of raw materials continues to rise, the demand for downstream power market continues to improve, and the demand for negative materials for ternary and iron lithium batteries increases, but battery enterprises have strict cost control, and graphite prices remain basically stable. The price of SMM artificial graphite (high-end) is 650-70000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM artificial graphite (mid-end) is 5. 7-62000 yuan per ton, the average price is the same as last week. SMM natural graphite (high-end) price is 480-60000 yuan / ton, SMM natural graphite (middle-end) price is 30,000-40000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Diaphragm: the price of diaphragm is flat this week. The purchasing demand of battery factory is still high, and the price of dry substrate membrane is difficult to fluctuate. The number of inquiry orders has increased, the head enterprise expansion project is still in place, and the diaphragm price will remain stable. This week, the prices of SMM wet base membrane (5 μ m), SMM wet base membrane (7 μ m) and SMM wet base membrane (9 μ m) are 2.5-3.3 yuan / square meter, 1.8-2.2 yuan / square meter and 1.2-1.5 yuan / square meter, respectively, which are the same as last week. The price of SMM dry base film (16 μ m) is 0.9-1 yuan per square meter, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM wet coating base film (5 μ m + 2 μ m) is 3-3.8 yuan / square meter, the price of SMM wet coating base film (7 μ m + 2 μ m) is 2.2-2.6 yuan / square meter, and the price of SMM wet coating base film (9 μ m + 3 μ m) is 1.8-2.5 yuan / square meter, the average price is the same as last week.
Electrolyte: the price of electrolyte has gone up this week. The price of raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate and solvent continues to increase, the demand of downstream power market increases, and the price of electrolyte continues to increase. at present, the price of solvent still has an upward trend, and the price of electrolyte still has room to rise in the future. The price of SMM electrolyte (for ternary power) is 40-50, 000 yuan per ton this week, with an average price increase of 2000 yuan per ton compared with last week. The price of SMM electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 34-40 thousand yuan / ton, the average price is 2500 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of SMM electrolyte (lithium cobalt oxide) is 5. 2-62000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of SMM electrolyte (lithium manganate) is 1.8-28000 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week.
Future forecast: cobalt, the latest research data show that cobalt sulfate, cobalt tetroxide are in short supply from September to October, the recent smelter will increase, October demand remains high, cobalt prices are strong. In terms of lithium, with the recovery of lithium salt production in October, the shortage situation will be gradually alleviated, and the downstream procurement increment may slow down in the fourth quarter, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize in the future.
SMM battery materials research team
Huo Yuan 021-51666898
Mei Wangqin 021-51666759
Liu Xiaoyi 021-51666716
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