Summary of Zinc Morning meeting in SMM on July 13
Spot fundamentals
Shanghai: smelters ship goods normally, traders mainly ship goods, zinc prices further go higher, the market quotation gradually falls back to about 40 yuan / ton of rising water, the receiving of goods is not good, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the acceptance of the high price is still low, so some traders receive goods at low prices in the second trading session, and the market transaction is transferred to about 30 million yuan / ton of rising water. They just need to purchase at the downstream near the weekend, and traders consider dumping goods at a low cost. Overall turnover remains weak. (bullish)
Ningbo: zinc prices continue to rise, and the market continued to be in a state of price and no market last Friday. in the first trading session, traders were not willing to ship goods, continuing the quotation the day before yesterday. Tiefeng Bao is near 80 yuan / ton for the August contract. West Mining News is near 70 yuan / ton for the August contract, and there is basically no quotation for Kirin market. Zinc futures rose sharply for two days in a row, and the lower reaches were reluctant to enter the market to inquire about prices and buy, while the Ningbo market had less supply, the holders were unwilling to ship goods at low prices, the market was more deadlocked, and the rising water did not change significantly. The trading atmosphere in the market on Friday was basically the same as that of the day before yesterday. (bullish)
Guangdong: during the first trading session, futures prices soared, few downstream entered the market to inquire about prices, and some holders held limited quantities of goods, and the quotations were relatively strong, but the market transaction was difficult, and the later quotations were loosened. Kirin and Mengzi quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to flat water for the August contract for Shanghai zinc, and 15 yuan / ton for Tiefeng. In the second trading session, futures prices are still high and volatile, traders receive goods at depressed prices, individual brands offer lower prices, and the overall market turnover is still poor. Kirin and Mongolia quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton for the August contract for Shanghai zinc and 20 yuan / ton for Feilong. (bullish)
Tianjin: last Friday, Shanghai zinc rose sharply, and the spot market lowered the discount quotation, and the price was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 80 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 130 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 80 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin offered a rise of 170 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. West Mining (delivered) quoted 40 yuan / ton for 08 contract, Sihuan (delivered) quoted 40 yuan / ton for 08 contract, Japan Zinc News quoted 120 yuan / ton for 08 contract, and Harbin Zinc (including depot) quoted 60 yuan / ton for 08 contract. Zinc prices rose again last Friday, traders shipping difficulties, lower discount prices, but the shipping situation has not improved, and part of the delivery of Zijin last Friday, will depress the market rising water; downstream, last Friday, the market rose sharply, only part of the downstream just need to purchase, the willingness to receive goods is not good, mainly wait-and-see. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin market on Friday was still poor. (bullish)
Inventory: according to SMM, as of July 10, the total inventory of SMM seven zinc ingots was 212400 tons, down 4200 tons from July 3 and 5300 tons from July 6. Inventory fell in July, mainly in Shanghai and Guangdong, with a slight increase in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The rising water in the Shanghai area fell in the first half of the week, the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy improved, and the overall purchase led to a small amount out of the warehouse; the purchase of downstream enterprises in Guangdong gradually picked up, and the transfer of goods to other regions did not happen this week, mainly because the price gap between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed; Tianjin received less goods this week, and shipments were more normal. Overall, the original inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell by 5100 tons, while the inventory in seven places across the country dropped by 4200 tons. (lidocaine)
Bonded area inventory: according to SMM, as of July 10, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai bonded area was 47000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons over last week. It is understood that this week, with the narrowing of import losses, imports of zinc ingots to Hong Kong increased, but under the high zinc prices, the market demand weakens, leaving the warehouse is weak. The inventory of zinc ingots in the bonded area as a whole increased slightly by 2000 tons this week. (bad luck)
Today's forecast zinc price: last Friday, Lun Zinc recorded five Lianyang, the daily K center of gravity further moved upward, the lower Bollinger Road on the track to provide support, KDJ opening expansion. Last Friday, LME inventory increased by 1600 tons, or 1.31%, to 123375 tons. In the context of the global economic recovery, there was a lot of good news from the stock market, boosting market optimism, superimposing the possible supply-side impact of unknown pneumonia infection in Kazakhstan further heightened market bullish sentiment, and Lun Zinc maintained a strong trend. Last Friday, Shanghai Zinc recorded a barefoot big positive column, the center of gravity moved up again, jumped away from the multiple arrangement pattern of the lower moving average, and the MACD positive column expanded again. Under the optimistic background of the capital market, the market speculation on the expectation of the peak consumption season has promoted a strong rise in zinc prices, but the uncertainty of Sino-US relations is expected to limit the room for Shanghai zinc to rise. Pay close attention to the development of Sino-US trade in the short term.
Today's forecast: the price of lun zinc is expected to run in the range of US $2150 / ton. It is expected that the contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2008 will run within the range of 17600 Mel 18100 yuan / ton, and domestic zinc is expected to rise by 210RMB / ton.
