[SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly report (0706mur0710)] the news of confirmation in Congo once again disturbed the price increase of emotional industrial carbon in Cobalt City and pulled up market sentiment.

SMM, July 10:

Battery and downstream end market: according to the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 102000 and 104000 respectively in June, up 21.3% and 26.8% month-on-month, down 25.0% and 33.1% from the same period last year. Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, compared with last month, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles increased, and the growth rate of pure electric vehicles was more obvious; compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles still showed a rapid decline. the output of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased rapidly, and sales decreased slightly. According to the SMM new energy database, the installed capacity of power batteries was 4.7 GWH, a decrease of 28.9% over the same period last year and a month-on-month increase of 33.9%. In June, the installed capacity of iron and lithium increased significantly compared with the previous month. In addition to the increase in the output of new energy commercial vehicles, the proportion of matching passenger vehicles also increased. The main increments are SAIC GM Wuling, Dongfeng Xiaokang and brilliance Xinyuan Motor. BYD "Han" did not start production in June.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: the price of electrolytic cobalt is the same this week. Affected by the news surface such as confirmed cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) mining area this week, the domestic price of electrolytic cobalt has been raised slightly, but there is basically no market, and the demand for raw materials is in stock, and there is no actual purchase intention for the time being. The spot sale of domestic cobalt intermediate products is relatively sparing, mainly due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation in Africa, the phenomenon of shipping delay is more common. However, at present, cobalt raw materials in domestic cobalt salt factories are arriving one after another, the willingness to purchase cobalt intermediate products is weakened, and the spot price of cobalt intermediate products is gradually falling in the short term. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt this week is 23-245000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM cobalt intermediate is $9.8 per pound, the average price is the same as last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the price of cobalt salt is flat this week. Cobalt salt spot transactions sporadic, cobalt raw material supply uncertainty increased, the market is expected to increase the willingness to stock downstream in July, cobalt salt slightly raised the quotation. It is understood that the start of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) cobalt mine has no impact for the time being, and the logistics continues to be inefficient in the early stage, and there is no significant deterioration. On the demand side, the willingness to prepare goods increased slightly in July. According to the latest data, the supply and demand structure of cobalt sulfate in China has improved, the cumulative balance of cobalt sulfate is expected to be only 100 metal tons in July, and the price of cobalt salt is expected to stabilize. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM this week is 4.45-47000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 5.35-56000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate is 2.33-23500 yuan / ton, an average price of 550 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: the price of cobalt oxide fell on Thursday. This week, the demand for the purchase and preparation of lithium cobalt oxide has increased, and the suppliers of cobalt tetroxide are more willing to ship and lower the quotation. The purchasing demand of demanders is still there, and the transaction price of cobalt tetroxide is expected to continue to decline slightly. The current price of SMM cobalt tetroxide is 17-175000 yuan / ton this week, which is 2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Ternary precursor: the price of the precursor remains unchanged this Wednesday. Cobalt salt prices are basically unchanged this week, nickel salt rose slightly, and precursor enterprises are in a wait-and-see state for the purchase of nickel sulfate. The price of the precursor of the big factory rose, but the acceptance in the lower reaches was poor, and the actual transaction price remained basically unchanged. The demand for downstream power is stable, the small power market continues to increase, the number of orders in the digital market increases slightly, and the price of digital 523 remains basically unchanged. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 7.1-73000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor is 7.3-75500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 7.8-80500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (811) is 9.05-95000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium carbonate: the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose this week. Qinghai industrial-grade lithium carbonate factory itself is tight and take the initiative to adjust prices, other enterprises may slightly follow the price adjustment, but the follow-up some enterprises have the risk of selling goods at low prices, the rate of price increase still needs to wait and see. The current inventory pressure of battery-grade lithium carbonate is still there, and it is difficult to raise the price without obvious repair in the downstream demand, but due to the recent increase in the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate, manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see mood and prices may remain stable in the short term. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate this week is 3.9-41000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM industrial grade zero lithium carbonate is 3.2-37000 yuan / ton, an average price of 250 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Lithium hydroxide: lithium hydroxide prices are flat this week. Industrial market demand remained stable this week, superimposed lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, short-term prices may remain stable. The production schedule of high-nickel ternary manufacturers increased in the third quarter, and some enterprises are about to supply in bulk through certification, but the current domestic battery-grade lithium hydroxide spot transaction is less, and the price is stable. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 4.7-52000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 4.2-45000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt is flat this week. Downstream lithium cobalt battery manufacturers began to prepare a little, lithium cobalt production plans to increase slightly, upstream cobalt lithium raw materials still have room for a small decline, it is expected that lithium cobalt prices may continue to decline slightly. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt is 19.1-196000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week.

Ternary material: the price of ternary material is the same this week. This week, the prices of precursors and electric carbon remain unchanged, the purchase of ternary materials by battery factories is less than expected, the market transaction is not much, and the price is basically unchanged. In the digital market, some enterprises misjudge the downstream expectations, the inventory is high, and there has been a phenomenon of low-price shipments in the near future. The price of SMM ternary material (523) is 11-116500 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622) is 13-137500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 811) is 14.7-160000 yuan per ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged this week. Industrial carbon prices rose slightly this week, not yet transmitted to iron and lithium enterprises, downstream power market demand increased slightly, but battery factories have strong bargaining power, iron and lithium prices are difficult to rise. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 3.45-37000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 2.8-33500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate remains unchanged this week. The price of industrial carbon increased slightly this week, which has not yet been transmitted to lithium manganate manufacturers. At present, the price of lithium manganate is basically at the bottom. If the price of industrial carbon increases by a large margin, it may lead to a rise in the price of lithium manganate. This week's SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) price is 2.1-28000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 3.3-35500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Negative materials: the prices of artificial graphite and natural graphite are the same this week. The price of raw material needle coke remains unchanged, the demand of downstream power market increases slightly, and the price is stable. The order quantity in the middle and low-end market is better, but the pressure of market competition is greater, and the price competition is fierce. This week SMM artificial graphite (high-end) price is 75-80 thousand yuan / ton, SMM artificial graphite (middle-end) price is 65-70 thousand yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. SMM natural graphite (high-end) price is 50-60, 000 yuan / ton, SMM natural graphite (middle-end) price is 30-40, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Diaphragm: the price of diaphragm is flat this week. The installed capacity of power batteries continues to warm up, and the demand for diaphragms increases. But the battery enterprise cost control strength strengthens, the diaphragm price may be under pressure. This week, the price of SMM wet base membrane (5 μ m) is 2.5 yuan / square meter, the price of SMM wet base membrane (7 μ m) is 1.8mur2.2 yuan / square meter, and the price of SMM wet base membrane (9 μ m) is 1.2mur1.5 yuan / square meter, all of which are the same as last week. The price of SMM dry base film (16 μ m) is 0.9mur1 yuan / square meter, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM wet coating base film (5 μ m + 2 μ m) is 3mur3.8 yuan / square meter, the price of SMM wet coating base film (7 μ m + 2 μ m) is 2.2 million yuan / square meter, and the price of SMM wet coating base film (9 μ m + 3 μ m) is 1.8 million yuan / square meter, the average price is the same as last week.

Electrolyte: the price of electrolyte is flat this week. The demand for conventional ternary battery recovers slowly, the downstream purchasing intention is limited, the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery is relatively stable, and the market price of electrolyte remains stable with little fluctuation. This week, the price of SMM electrolyte (ternary power) is 3.5-45000 yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 3-35000 yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium cobalt) is 50-60 thousand yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium manganate) is 1.5-25000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Future forecast: cobalt, affected by the news surface such as confirmed cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) mining area this week, the market sentiment has been disturbed again, and the demand for cobalt salt stock has increased slightly, which may support the short-term cobalt price. In terms of lithium, the recent slight increase in industrial carbon prices has boosted market sentiment. In the long run, there is still a high correlation between industrial carbon and electric carbon prices, and the industry needs a certain amount of time to digest inventory. At the stage when the price of lithium carbonate is already in the bottom range, it is necessary to closely observe the emergence of the inflection point on the demand side whether there is an opportunity for a trend rise in the price in the future.

SMM battery materials research team

Qin Jingjing 021 Murray 51666828

Mei Wang Qin 021 Mui 51666759

Huo Yuan 021 Murray 51666898