[SMM Daily Review] most of the non-ferrous plates are floating red and black, which strongly drives up the iron ore by more than 6% and hot rolls by more than 3%.

SMM5: during the day, boosted by the strong surge in ferrous metals, most non-ferrous metals fluctuated upwards, shanghai zinc and tin rose more than 1%, and shanghai aluminum also maintained a rising trend, hitting a two-month high. Shanghai lead fell 0.42%, lead fundamentals are still expected to be weak, but inventories have been low. According to SMM research, as of May 22, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 9500 tons, up more than 100 tons from the week of May 15, with only a slight increase. At present, the position of Shanghai lead contract is still very high, the recent long funds are also trying to push up, do not rule out the possibility that Shanghai lead will rise in the short term, pay attention to the accumulation of lead inventory in the later stage, excess expectations will be fulfilled, the pressure of lead prices to continue to rise will be highlighted. In addition, this week (May 23-May 29), the weekly operating rate of SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in the four provinces was 48.8%, down 0.8% from last week. "check the details that the center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum continues to move up, mainly due to the social inventory to maintain the elimination and continued strong spot prices. SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory continued to decline from the April high, in addition, the recent high prices of the spot market to maintain a strong spot aluminum ingots, Shanghai Aluminum has developed a school of its own recently.

Black rose sharply, iron ore rose 6.44%, hot coil rose 3.18%, thread rose 2.49%. Iron ore rose violently in the afternoon, with a daily increase of more than 100000 hands and a capital inflow of 2.1 billion yuan. In terms of steel supply, the rapid growth of production capacity and output will hit a record high, and the supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, long-term demand is strong due to the impact of real estate and infrastructure, and plate demand continues to recover. After the steel market price continued to fall, the risk was released.

Crude oil rose 0.73% in the previous period. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers are reportedly considering extending record production cuts until the end of the year to support international oil prices, but the idea has not yet won Russian support. Russia could once again become a stumbling block to this plan. Last month OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries (OPEC+) agreed to cut production by 9.7 million b / d in May and June, to 7.7 million b / d from July to December. Saudi Arabia wants to see a further cut in crude oil supply by 9.7 million barrels a day by the end of 2020 in order to rebalance the market, sources said. Russia is noncommittal with its typical "wait-and-see" attitude.

As of today's day close:

Today's capital flow

The futures market was widely popular, with the commodity index inflow of more than 2.6 billion. Iron ore rose violently in the afternoon, with an increase of more than 100000 positions per day, attracting more than 2.1 billion funds. Rebar and hot coil plates also performed well, and the iron and steel plate crazily absorbed more than 3 billion yuan. The center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum continues to move upward, but it has lost more than 8,000 positions in the day, and the non-ferrous sector has lost nearly 200 million funds. Precious metals have risen again and have been spoiled by more than 300 million dollars.

A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 29th

Copper: today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 43840 yuan / ton in the morning, after the opening, copper prices briefly fell to the lowest point of 43730 yuan / ton. Then long increased positions superimposed short positions, copper prices fluctuated up to 43920 yuan / ton. Then it was arranged horizontally around the position of 43890 yuan / ton, and closed at 43910 yuan / ton at noon. Opening in the afternoon, the bulls renewed their strength, and the disk quickly rose to the highest point of the day, 44050 yuan / ton, but the rising momentum was insufficient. Copper prices fell below the 44000 mark, and the disk slipped to the position of 43800 yuan / ton. Near the end of the day, short sellers made a profit and the copper price rebounded and finally closed at 43940 yuan / ton, up 320 yuan / ton, or 0.73%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its positions by 232 hands to 103000 hands, mainly for short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 14000 lots to 92000 hands. The main force of copper in Shanghai rose during the day, mainly due to the release of overnight data showing positive signs of economic recovery, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell for eight weeks in a row. But Sino-US relations remain strained and caution continues to dampen the continued rise in copper prices. From a fundamental point of view, domestic copper consumption is better than expected, and social inventories continued to decline on Wednesday, which also supported copper prices. Today, the copper in Shanghai closed, and the opening of the KDJ curve shrank. Below there are 5-day and 10-day moving averages adhering to the bottom, from a technical point of view, good copper prices. Wait for the outer disk guidelines in the evening to test whether Shanghai Copper can effectively break through the 44000 yuan / ton mark.

Aluminum: the main 2007 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 13155 yuan / ton in the morning, briefly down 13110 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, rose first and then suppressed at noon, and was under pressure at 13185 yuan / ton position. in the afternoon, short positions began to be concentrated, aluminum prices rose and climbed all the way. by the end of the day, they reached a daily high of 13260 yuan / ton, continuing to refresh yesterday's new high, closing at 13215 yuan / ton, up 110yuan / ton, up 0.84%. Trading volume decreased by 11340 lots to 105000 lots, positions decreased by 8954 lots to 151000 lots, and short positions were mainly reduced to close at Xiaoyang line, recording six Lianyang. In the case of strong superimposed consumption in the absence of treasury, the spot circulation in the market is tight, the short-sellers are not strong in the near future, and it is expected to be mainly strong and volatile in the short term.

Updating.

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