SMM10, March 29: today's non-ferrous metals market generally fell, as of the end of the day, Shanghai copper fell 0.29%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.29%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.76%, Shanghai lead fell 0.33%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.17%, Shanghai tin fell 0.16%.
On the copper side, Ecuador said the first large copper shipments would be shipped within weeks, a milestone in the country's transition from an exploration hotspot to a copper exporter. The ElMirador copper mine opened in July, but in October it imposed restrictions as it took precautions to protect workers after riots over the government's austerity programme. FernandoBenalcazar, Ecuador's deputy mining minister, said on the sidelines of a Imarc mining conference in Melbourne that the company had returned to normal operations and would ship its first shipment next month. "initially we planned to ship the goods by the end of this month," he said. The company already has 30000 tons in stock. This is our first large-scale export of copper supply. " Ecuador, a neighbour of Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, is rich in mineral resources, but mining projects have only just begun.
Copper futures are understood to have fallen on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is about to take place and the LME week of discussions enters its second day. Copper for (LME) delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.2% to $5908 a tonne. DanielHynes, commodity strategist at ANZ bank (ANZ), said weak profits at Chinese industrial companies had overshadowed "positive developments in trade negotiations and supply issues in Chile".
On the nickel side, Guoxin Futures said that Shanghai nickel rushed higher today, and yesterday it was rumored that Indonesia would immediately ban raw mine exports and cause nickel prices to rise sharply. Baril Rahadalia (BahlilLahadalia), chairman of the Indonesian Investment Committee, issued a statement saying that the Indonesian government immediately banned nickel producers from selling abroad, according to the SMM, citing foreign sources. However, the opposite news came out again today, with the Indonesian minister saying that the ban on nickel exports was scheduled to begin on January 1 next year, and Shanghai nickel fell back. Indonesia's mining ban once again makes the market confusing, if the ban in advance will aggravate the future shortage of domestic nickel resources expectations, the current news has not yet been officially confirmed, it is suggested that wait and wait for the news to be clear.
Zinc, Guoxin Futures said Shanghai zinc shock is strong. According to the latest ILZSG report, the shortage of refined zinc is expected to be 178000 tons in 2019, but it is likely to turn into a surplus of 192000 tons by 2020. The latest WMBS statistics also show a more-than-expected shortage, LME inventories fell back below 60, 000 tons, indicating that the previous expectations that led to a sharp fall in zinc prices this year will be revised, and if there is no significant negative in the future, it will maintain the idea of a rebound. It is recommended to hold more than one.
Black series, iron ore down 1.74%, thread up 0.21%, hot coil up 0.18%, stainless steel up 0.54%, coke down 0.73%, coking coal flat. The latest exchange rules change, the firm: from November 1, 2019 trading, iron ore, coke, coking coal and other varieties of non-1-5-9 contract month handling fee standards to be adjusted. In terms of data, China Steel Association data show that steel production and demand in the first three quarters of this year have maintained a certain increase, but due to the sharp rise in costs, the efficiency of iron and steel enterprises has declined. Steel production continued to grow in the first nine months of the year, but imports and exports fell, according to the data. From January to September, the country exported 50.31 million tons of steel, down 5 percent, and imported 8.75 million tons of steel, down 12.2 percent. China Steel Association data also showed that from January to September, the total profit of member enterprises was 146.6 billion yuan, down 32% from the same period last year, and the sales profit margin was 4.6%, down 3 percentage points from the same period last year.
Crude oil rose 0.22% in the previous period. Foreign oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors waited for U. S. crude oil inventory data to judge the trend in oil demand, while concerns about slowing economic growth overshadowed signs of easing trade tensions between China and the United States, according to foreign news. Traders said earlier that data company Genscape data showed that WTI crude oil futures delivery low reservoir Xin Yuan oil depot had increased by about 1.5 million barrels in the week to October 25. (API) will release its industry version of the inventory report at 04:30 Beijing time on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data at 22:30 on Wednesday
As of 16:57, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
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Brief comment of SMM analyst on October 29th
Copper: today, the main copper contract in Shanghai opened at 47480 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at an intraday high, and then copper prices fell step by step. In the second quarter of trading, the center of gravity stabilized at 47420 yuan / ton, and fell to around 47390 yuan / ton near the end of the afternoon. In the afternoon, the center of gravity continued to move slightly down to 47360 yuan / ton, closing down at 47340 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, down 0.29%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position decreased by 2724 hands to 225000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume decreased by 46000 hands to 90, 000 hands. Shanghai copper position continued to move backward, Shanghai copper 2001 contract daily position increased by 3380 hands to 136000 hands; Shanghai copper 2002 contract day increased position by 5988 hands to 54000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 1836 hands to 540000, while trading volume fell 53000 to 208000. Today, the trend of the market is more tired, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai has moved down, mainly because investors are still worried about weak macroeconomic demand, crude oil has also continued to fall back, and has broken through the 55 level, coupled with the weakness of recent multinational economic data, it is also confirmed that the macro level has not improved and it is difficult for copper prices to rise. At present, Shanghai copper is supported by the solid big yin column, the MACD red column is shortened, and the technical surface is multi-copper support is insufficient. The level of 47300 yuan / ton was further tested in the evening.
Aluminum: the Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13790 yuan / ton in the morning, briefly rose 13805 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, and then opened high and low and recorded a long negative line. Due to how flat it was, the aluminum price leaked to 13740 yuan / ton. Then it began to rise back from its low level and began to shock and climb to 13780 yuan / ton along the 5-day moving average. at this time, it was blocked by the 60-day moving average, aluminum prices hovered briefly, and short positions were reduced one after another in 15 minutes. Aluminum prices hit 13795 yuan / ton in the end of the day, closing at 13785 yuan / ton, trading volume increased by 27410 hands to 116000 hands, position increased by 5456 hands to 240000 hands, short positions mainly, closed in the small negative line, down 40 yuan / ton, down 0.29%, the center of gravity below the 20-day moving average, daily KDJ third line down. Shanghai aluminum trend is not strong within the day, short still has a strong motivation, with time gradually into November, expected to follow up consumption short expectations gradually clear, pay attention to long short positions and changes in the market atmosphere at night, is expected to continue to maintain weak volatility in the evening.
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