[October 14 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] Macro good to reach the day to pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can hold the Wanqi pass

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

After the Sino-US economic and trade talks ended on Friday afternoon, US President Donald Trump met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu he in the Oval Office of the White House. According to comprehensive media reports, China and the United States reached an agreement on the first phase of the trade agreement.

The Federal Reserve said it would start buying about $60 billion a month in short-term bonds to ensure that the banking system has "adequate reserves", but stressed that the new plan did not mark a change in monetary policy. The purchases, which will begin on October 15th, are in response to the recent turmoil in the short-term money markets. The "technical" measures will last until at least the second quarter of 2020. The Fed also said it would continue to operate on a daily basis until January to inject money into the overnight lending market.

The CSRC defines the time limit for the ratio of foreign investment shares of futures, funds and securities companies, in which the ratio limit of foreign investment shares of futures companies will be lifted from January 1, 2020, and the proportion of qualified foreign investors in futures companies can be up to 100%. In addition, the ratio of foreign investment shares of fund management companies will be lifted from April 1, 2020, and the ratio of foreign investment shares of securities companies will be lifted from December 1, 2020.

Fundamentals:

Last week, Shanghai lead rush fell back, downstream post-festival procurement mood is low, the overall transaction is light; with the end of production restrictions and maintenance of primary lead refineries, refineries continue to base up the warehouse after the festival, so the shipment enthusiasm is better, as of last Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to the flat water quotation; Primary lead trade market, holders actively ship after the festival, spot discount slightly expanded, as of last Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1911 contract discount of 30 yuan / ton to flat water; recycled lead, after the festival, the environmental protection limit of production in various regions has ended one after another, the output of recycled refined lead has gradually increased, as of last Friday, the mainstream price of recycled refined lead has been discounted to 200 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead.

In addition, the total social inventory of the five places of lead ingots was 18000 tons, down about 900 tons from before the National Day (September 27) and 160 tons from the beginning of the week (October 8).

Lead price:

Lun lead finally closed in the barefoot small positive line, although still did not break through 2200 US dollars / ton suppression platform, but the technical aspect maintains the strong trend, in addition, the weekly level, the 5, 10-day moving average firmly supports the weekly K line upward, Geneva lead may continue to try to break through the suppression platform; Shanghai lead temporarily closed the Zhongyang line, stop falling and return to rise, the lower 60-day moving average support is effective, and the 5, 10-day moving average turned up, but the return of Shanghai lead to more than 10, 000 is the promotion of macro, within the day to pay close attention to whether Shanghai lead can hold Wan Qi;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to rise 50 yuan per ton today.