[2019.10.10 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] guidance on macro news for overnight zinc rally in Shanghai

SMM October 10 Zinc Morning meeting: overnight Shanghai Zinc pulls up and pays attention to Macro News guidance within days

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: it is reported that China is open to reaching a limited trade agreement with the United States, but is not optimistic about reaching a comprehensive agreement. It is reported that China and the United States have made no progress in the trade negotiations at the deputy representative level, and the two countries officially opened a new round of high-level economic and trade consultations on Thursday. The Turkish army entered Syria to launch an attack on the Kurds, which met with opposition from Europe and the United States. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting show that debate is beginning to emerge over when to stop easing. The European Union says there are no conditions for a Brexit agreement with Britain. The EU's chief negotiator for Brexit: there are currently no conditions for a Brexit agreement between the EU and Britain. Us job vacancies unexpectedly fell in August to their lowest level since March 2018, underscoring a slowdown in employer hiring, although the labour market remains generally tight. British Prime Minister Johnson has urged Trump not to impose tariffs on British and EU exports.

Fundamentals: spot Review yesterday: rising Water in Shanghai Stock Market and abundant supply in Tianjin

Shanghai: in the first trading period, the holder mainly quoted the average price of SMM net, and some of the holders reported a 120 yuan / ton increase in the 1911 contract, and the market shipment mood was not high. In the second trading session, the zinc price fluctuated and fell back, the holder raised the water quotation, some reported to the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton; The second trading day after the festival, the overall trading of the market is relatively light, the shipper shipment mood is not high, coupled with near the first batch of long order delivery, the market spot rising water is relatively strong.

Guangdong: the Shanghai stock market is rising. The price gap between the two places widened again. The morning holder newspaper house concentrates in the average price near, partial average price-10 yuan / ton shipment is very smooth, enters the second trading period, the trader sees the situation to stand up the price, the quotation concentrates in the 11 contract discount near 30 yuan / ton, the overall transaction discount is narrower than the first period, generally speaking, today's Guangdong market transaction atmosphere is more enthusiastic, by the trader contributes the main transaction, the transaction situation is slightly better than the day before.

Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply is higher than yesterday, it is rumored that more than 10, 000 tons of Iranian zinc arrived today, SMM will continue to pay attention. The quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated around 230-280 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water, and that for ordinary brands is about 130230 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water. Disk continued horizontal concussion consolidation, supply tightening trend slightly turned to make rising water slightly lower than yesterday, the market is generally more bearish, traders are still inquiry wait-and-see, downstream rigid demand to buy part of the transaction, today's transaction atmosphere is relatively light. On the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday's.

Zinc price: overnight zinc received two Lianyang, the overall operation between Brin Road Central track, LME zinc stocks recorded a decline for many days to give Lun zinc some support, but the intensification of market concerns about trade disputes make Lun zinc under pressure. The consolidation trend of zinc in Geneva is expected to continue. Overnight Shanghai zinc received three Lianyang, pressure Brin Road rail operation, overnight position reduction to short mainly boost zinc prices, but the bulls show hesitation to enter the market is not strong, Shanghai zinc may be difficult to get further action energy, in this stalemate situation, Shanghai zinc is still dominated by interval shock, pay attention to the upcoming Sino-US trade negotiations.

Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2260-2310 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract or run at 18500-19000 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 140 yuan per ton.

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