[SMM Daily Review] the trend of nickel and coke in Shanghai has increased by more than 1% in the red fat, green, lean and black system of non-ferrous metals.

SMM7 12: today's non-ferrous metals market red fat green thin, by the end of the day, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.05%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.7%; Among them, zinc stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell 200 tons to 90500 tons on Friday compared with Friday, according to a SMM survey, recording a decline for seven weeks in a row. After the collapse of overseas structure, although the import loss has been greatly narrowed to about 300 to 500 yuan / ton, it is still far from the full opening of import profits, coupled with the clear expansion of domestic supply, the activity of the foreign trade market has not increased, and the willingness of traders to inquire about imports is on the low side. "[SMM data] SMM zinc bonded area stocks continued to decline by 200t, recorded a decline for seven consecutive weeks

In the black system, the thread fell by nearly 1%, the hot roll fell by nearly 0.8%, the iron ore closed flat, the coking coal increased by nearly 0.6%, and the coke increased by more than 1%. According to the official website of the Ministry of Ecological Environment on July 12, in order to implement the relevant requirements of the "Circular of the State Council on issuing and issuing the three-year Action Plan to win the Blue Sky Defense War," guiding all localities to strengthen the comprehensive control of air pollution in industrial furnaces and kilns, coordinate the control of greenhouse gas emissions, and promote the high-quality development of the industry, the Ministry of Ecological Environment has formulated the "Program for Comprehensive Control of Air pollution in Industrial furnaces and kilns." The main objectives listed in the plan are: by 2020, improve the comprehensive management system of air pollution in industrial furnaces and kilns, and promote industrial furnaces and kilns to meet the discharge standards in an all-round way. The equipment and pollution control level of industrial furnaces and kilns in key areas for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Fen-Wei Plain have been significantly improved, and the discharge of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and other pollutants in the industrial sector has been further reduced. We will promote effective control of the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions from key industries such as iron and steel and building materials, and promote the continuous improvement of ambient air quality and the development of high quality industries.

Crude oil rose nearly 0.9% during the day, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) on Thursday expected global demand for its crude oil to fall next year while competitors increase production, suggesting that the oil market will return to oversupply despite OPEC's extension of the production limit agreement with allies, according to Wenhua Finance. The decline in demand for OPEC crude highlights its policy of supporting oil prices through production cuts that continue to boost supplies of US shale oil and other competitors. That could give US President Donald Trump more room to continue sanctions against OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. OPEC gave its first forecast for 2020 in its monthly report. Global demand for crude oil from its 14 member countries will be 29.27 million barrels a day next year, down 1.34 million barrels a day from this year, the group said.

Capital flow today

In terms of capital flow, black chain siphon 662 million funds entered, chemical plate capital outflow of 287 million yuan, crude oil plate, non-ferrous metals and precious metal plate capital outflow of more than 100 million yuan. Specifically, iron ore futures closed cross star line, but the daily increase of 56000 hands, capital inflow of 451 million yuan, threaded plate to increase the position fell, absorbing 250 million yuan. PTA futures fell nearly 3%, a daily reduction of 60, 000 hands, abandoned by 236 million funds.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 12

Copper: today, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1909 opened at 46680 yuan / ton in the morning, rushed up to a high level of 46760 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, continued to decline after exploration, and continued to decline within the range of 46640 yuan / ton. During this period, the lowest position in the day was 46640 yuan / ton, and then the bulls increased their positions. After the disk rose to 46750 yuan / ton, the shock continued to fall to 46660 yuan / ton, and then the bullish force continued to strengthen, reaching the highest level of 46780 yuan / ton in the day along the way. After the impact, the center of gravity continued to fall back to 46720 yuan / ton, and then the market continued to fall back and closed at 46670 yuan / ton. It rose 130 yuan per ton, or 0.28 percent. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased by 1486 hands to 236000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 56000 hands to 116000 hands. Shanghai Copper 1908 contract today reduced its position by 6750 hands to 177000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 19000 hands to 63000 hands. The Shanghai Copper Index fell 11000 hands to 583000 hands today, while trading volume fell 106000 hands to 226000 hands. Today, the Shanghai copper index in the non-ferrous plate capital outflow volume of 162 million, mainly because of 07, 08 contract short a large number of departure. The dollar continued to fall and break through 97 today, copper prices were supported, the overall performance of the copper market rose slightly today, mainly because of the recent release of US employment and CPI data performed well, but still failed to weaken the market for the Fed to cut interest rates further, the dollar came under pressure. At the same time, crude oil continued to rise above 60 today, mainly due to the Gulf of Mexico storm superimposed tensions in the Middle East, oil prices were boosted. The dollar and oil prices supported copper prices slightly higher. Today, Shanghai copper slightly closed the sun, the upper shadow line broke through the 40-day moving average, the lower part of the small Yang column entity is supported by the Brin middle rail, the opening of the KDJ index is good for upward expansion, and the technology forms support in the face of copper price. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand firm and rush to the 46800 yuan / ton gate.

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