[SMM analysis] Winter is coming? Analysis on the production situation of Power Battery Enterprises in the near Future

SMM June 18 News:

The battle of power battery enterprises to reduce production and survive frequently who goes and who stays

With the poor performance of downstream market demand, power battery enterprises and upstream material market began to appear chain effect. According to SMM, there have been a number of power battery enterprises have reduced production to varying degrees, the industry seems to have reached the bottleneck stage of development. Since late May, the cathode material factory has been notified of the reduction of orders from battery companies in June, and the reduction plan is expected to continue into the third quarter. Among these battery companies, including the two leading battery companies, C and B, have been reducing production by about 1 to 3 since June, controlling the start-up rate. In addition, battery factories in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Jiangxi have reduced production to varying degrees.

New energy vehicles are challenging, consumer environment is not good.

Previously, we have pointed out in our monthly analysis that the growth rate of the new energy vehicle industry has begun to slow down, which is mainly affected by three factors:

First of all, due to the release of new energy subsidies later than expected, industry demand has been released ahead of schedule at the end of last year and the beginning of this year;

Secondly, the implementation of the "National six" is just around the corner, and a large number of "National five" inventory vehicles have begun to promote sales in the near future. On the one hand, there are a large number of "national five" inventory vehicles in the four key consumer cities of new energy vehicles in the north, and on the other hand, the prices of new energy vehicles have been raised one after another because of subsidies. This also directly leads to the transfer of part of the new energy consumption demand, has the substitution effect to the new energy vehicle, has increased its shipping pressure.

Finally, there have been a number of safety accidents in the new energy industry since the beginning of the year. Especially after the fire broke out in Tesla, Weilai and other well-known new energy vehicles, it has dealt a serious blow to the confidence of consumers to buy new energy vehicles.

In addition to the influence of the above triple factors, the inspection of safety risks required by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently will affect the operating rate of the mainframe plant to a certain extent, and the current policy of positive double points is still in the transitional adaptation period. We expect that the growth rate of new energy vehicles will continue to slow down in the third quarter. If there is no new demand stimulus point, we do not rule out the possibility of negative growth.

This year is destined to be an extraordinary year for the new energy industry, with year-on-year growth rates falling year-on-year since January, both in terms of new energy vehicle production and sales and power battery installations. Will the new energy power industry enter a long period of adjustment, or will it bounce back after a quick shuffle? The SMM New Energy team will continue to track and judge.

SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team

Hu Yan 021 51666809

Hong Lu 021 51666814

Ning Ziwei 021 51666780

Qin Jingjing 021 51666828