Macro Roundup (Mar 20)

SHANGHAI, Mar 20 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar edged lower against a basket of major currencies due to concerns over the strength of the American economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will prove accommodative at its meeting this week.

Traders are focused on the Federal Reserve, which began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, for clues about the likely path of US borrowing costs and whether the central bank will affirm its commitment to a patient monetary policy, analysts said.

The European Union is likely to convey to Theresa May that she must decide by mid-April whether to extend Brexit until 2020 or risk leaving in three months without a deal, a senior EU official said.

Base metals, except for SHFE lead, closed higher on Tuesday as SHFE nickel led the increase and jumped 1.6%. Zinc rose 0.81%, aluminum grew 0.66%, tin went up 0.42%, and copper gained 0.14%. LME zinc rose 1.48%, nickel climbed 1.11%, aluminum closed 0.81% higher, tin increased 0.62%, copper went up 0.4%, and lead nudged up. 

The German ZEW headline numbers for March showed that the economic sentiment index dropped to -3.6, compared with the expected -11.0 and February’s -13.4. The sub-index current conditions figure declined to 11.1, compared with 15 for February and missing market expectations.

"The significant increase in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment shows that major economic risks are considered to be less dramatic than before. The possible delay in the Brexit process, as well as the renewed hope for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, seem to have given rise to more optimism among financial market experts. Progress made in the negotiations between China and the US to end the trade war between the two nations may also have contributed. Nevertheless, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany points to relatively weak growth in the first half of 2019," commented ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported Tuesday that US crude supplies fell by 2.13 million barrels for the week ended March 15. The API also reportedly showed that gasoline stockpiles shrank by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by 1.6 million barrels. 

Day ahead

The US will release its weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its federal funds rate for March.