Macro Roundup (Jun 11)

SHANGHAI, Jun 11 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar index fell 0.7% over the past week to close at 93.5 last Friday. Expectations of interest rate hikes grew while the euro remains under pressure amid Italian political turmoil and the eurozone’s trade disputes with the US.

SHFE metals fell last Friday night except for copper and zinc, while LME metals rose, except for lead and tin. LME zinc and aluminium gained over 1%, copper inched up close to 1%, and nickel nudged up. LME copper fell on Friday after hitting the highest level in four and a half years earlier in the week. Chinese Customs data released on Friday June 8 showed that China imported 475,000 mt of copper products in May, the highest level since December 2016, which limited the decline of LME copper.

China's trade surplus in May narrowed from April and came in at $24.9 billion, smaller than the expected $33.8 billion. Trade surplus for April was revised to be $28.4 billion from $28.8 billion.

In May, exports rose 26% year on year, higher than the expected 18.8% and April’s 21.5%. Imports rose 12.6% year on year, higher than the expected 11.3% but slightly lower than 12.7% in April after revision.

The surplus with the US widened again in May, with trading volumes up 8% month on month and up 11.6% year on year.

US wholesale inventory rose 0.1% month on month in its final April reading. Sales at wholesalers jumped 0.8% in April after rising 0.4% in March.

The number of active US rigs for oil rose for three consecutive weeks, up 1 unit to 862 units over the week ended June 8 with natural gas rigs up 1 unit to 198 units, according to data from Baker Hughes. This brought the overall active rigs up 2 units to 1,062 units.

China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods on an ex-works basis, rose 4.1 % year on year in May, higher than the expected 3.9% and April’s 3.4%. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% year on year in May, in line with expectations and unchanged from the growth in April.

Day ahead

Key factor to watch today is China's financial data in May, including social financing, new loans and M2 money supply.

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