SMM Morning Comments (Mar 23)

SHANGHAI, Mar 23 (SMM) –

Copper: As prospects of a trade war loomed, prices for copper are likely to edge down in the near future with pressure from short bets. We see LME copper trading at $6,630-6,700/mt, and SHFE copper at 50,000-50,400 yuan/mt today. Spot discounts are seen at 200-120 yuan/mt as consumers are eager to restock.

Aluminium: Increasing US trade protectionism dragged aluminium prices down, with LME and SHFE aluminium falling to lows of $2,063/mt and 13,755 yuan/mt respectively. We expect LME aluminium to weaken and trade at $2,050-2,090/mt with SHFE aluminium at 13,700-13,880 yuan/mt today. Spot discounts are seen at 120-80 yuan/mt.

Zinc: The China-US trade dispute escalated as tariffs were set for China overnight, and weighed on base metals. LME zinc lost support at the five- and 10- day moving averages, and dipped to a low of $3,182.5/mt last night. It will continue to face pressure and trade at $3,185-3,235/mt today. SHFE zinc also fell with resistance from short bets, and closed at 24,550 yuan/mt overnight. We expect it to trade rangebound at 24,250-24,750 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel fell below the 60-day moving average as inventory grew overnight. It is expected to test support at $130,00/mt today. The SHFE 1805 contract will trade at 98,500-100,500 yuan/mt as the prices for downstream stainless steel remain low. We see spot prices at 98,000-99,800 yuan/mt.

Tin: As base metals fell across the board, LME tin did not lose much ground and traded mostly rangebound around the five-day moving average overnight. We see support at $20,600/mt today. SHFE tin hit an unexpected low of 137,130 yuan/mt as investors reduced their long positions overnight. We expect it to test support at 143,000 yuan/mt with downward room in the short term, and trade at 143,000-144,500 yuan/mt today.

Lead: Both LME and SHFE lead closed lower overnight given the simmering trade war between China and the US. We expect the two to continue to weaken today.

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