SMM Evening Comments (Mar 8)

SHANGHAI, Mar 8 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals fell across the board in the afternoon with SHFE nickel leading the loss with a 2% drop. Copper and zinc were down over 1%, aluminium slid almost 1%, and other metals edged down.

The ferrous complex also saw a weak performance, with iron ore and rebar leading the slump and closing 4% lower. Coke and coking coal dropped over 3%, and hot-rolled coil slipped nearly 3%.

Copper: The SHFE 1805 contract fell to a low of 51,950 yuan/mt and hovered below the moving averages today. We expect it to trade rangebound tonight. Buyers held back as consumers held inventories and face pressure from funds. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits may give more guidance to the market tonight.

Aluminium: SHFE aluminium rebounded slightly and closed at 14,125 yuan/mt as investors closed out their short positions. We expect it to trade rangebound in the short term with upward momentum in the medium term as the high season approaches.

Zinc: With pressure from shorts, SHFE zinc closed at 25,100 yuan/mt, the lowest level today. We expect it to edge down and test support at 25,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Nickel: In line with the weak performance of the nonferrous complex today, SHFE nickel dropped over 2% and closed at 100,730 yuan/mt today. It is likely to trade rangebound tonight. Refinancing rates at the European Central Bank (ECB) will give more cues to market participants tonight.

Lead: LME lead fell to a six-month low today, while SHFE lead rebounded and hovered around moving averages after it broke the support at 18,500 yuan/mt. We expect the SHFE contract to consolidate around the five-day moving average tonight as LME lead continues to weaken.

Tin: After it inched up to 146,460 yuan/mt, SHFE tin dipped and closed at 145,610 yuan/mt today. This was down 1,010 yuan/mt from yesterday. As prices of base metals fell today, SHFE tin is likely to test support at 145,000 yuan/mt with short term pressure.

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