Where will Metals Prices Head after Possible Fed Rate Hike? SMM Exclusive

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 13, 2016 11:45
US Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its December policy meeting this Thursday. It is now widely believed that the Fed rate hike is very likely.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์น ๋ ˆ AMSA์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์—ฐ์ค‘ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ: ๊ณ ์ •๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฒซ ํฌ๊ธฐ, ์ง€์ˆ˜์—ฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณต์‹ ํ•ฉ์˜
46๋ถ„ ์ „
์น ๋ ˆ AMSA์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์—ฐ์ค‘ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ: ๊ณ ์ •๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฒซ ํฌ๊ธฐ, ์ง€์ˆ˜์—ฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณต์‹ ํ•ฉ์˜
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์น ๋ ˆ AMSA์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์—ฐ์ค‘ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ: ๊ณ ์ •๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฒซ ํฌ๊ธฐ, ์ง€์ˆ˜์—ฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณต์‹ ํ•ฉ์˜
์น ๋ ˆ AMSA์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์—ฐ์ค‘ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ: ๊ณ ์ •๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฒซ ํฌ๊ธฐ, ์ง€์ˆ˜์—ฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณต์‹ ํ•ฉ์˜
์น ๋ ˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด AMSA์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ฃผ์š” ๋™์ œ๋ จ์†Œ๋“ค์€ 7์›” 1์ผ ์ค‘๊ธฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋™ ์ •๊ด‘ TC(์ œ๋ จ ์ˆ˜์ˆ˜๋ฃŒ) ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ํ™•์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๊ณ ์ • TC ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ํ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ  ํ•˜ํ•œ์„ -์ง€์ˆ˜ ์—ฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๋™ ์ •๊ด‘ TC๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ์ €์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ค‘๊ธฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ํ˜‘์ƒ์— ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด๊ฒฌ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ๋“ค์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘๊ธฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์—์„œ ๊ณ ์ • TC๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์™”์œผ๋‚˜, ์ด๋ฒˆ์— AMSA๋Š” ์ง€์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฑ…์ •์œผ๋กœ์˜ ์ „ํ™˜์„ ๊ณ ์ง‘ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์–‘์ธก์€ ํ˜์‹ ์ ์ธ ํƒ€ํ˜‘์•ˆ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
46๋ถ„ ์ „
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์‹ค๋ฒ„&ํ‹ด: ์•„ํ‹€๋ผ์Šค ํ‹ด SAS ์ž”์—ฌ ์ง€๋ถ„ 25% ์ธ์ˆ˜ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ์™„์ „ ์†Œ์œ ๊ถŒ ํ™•๋ณด ์ถ”์ง„
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์‹ค๋ฒ„&ํ‹ด: ์•„ํ‹€๋ผ์Šค ํ‹ด SAS ์ž”์—ฌ ์ง€๋ถ„ 25% ์ธ์ˆ˜ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ์™„์ „ ์†Œ์œ ๊ถŒ ํ™•๋ณด ์ถ”์ง„
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์‹ค๋ฒ„&ํ‹ด: ์•„ํ‹€๋ผ์Šค ํ‹ด SAS ์ž”์—ฌ ์ง€๋ถ„ 25% ์ธ์ˆ˜ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ์™„์ „ ์†Œ์œ ๊ถŒ ํ™•๋ณด ์ถ”์ง„
์‹ฑ์˜ˆ ์‹ค๋ฒ„&ํ‹ด: ์•„ํ‹€๋ผ์Šค ํ‹ด SAS ์ž”์—ฌ ์ง€๋ถ„ 25% ์ธ์ˆ˜ ๊ณ„ํšโ€ฆ์™„์ „ ์†Œ์œ ๊ถŒ ํ™•๋ณด ์ถ”์ง„
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
COMEX ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ, LME ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•˜๋ฝ; 232์กฐ ๊ด€์„ธ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์†์— ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ํ™•๋Œ€
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
COMEX ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ, LME ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•˜๋ฝ; 232์กฐ ๊ด€์„ธ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์†์— ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
COMEX ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ, LME ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•˜๋ฝ; 232์กฐ ๊ด€์„ธ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์†์— ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ํ™•๋Œ€
COMEX ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ, LME ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•˜๋ฝ; 232์กฐ ๊ด€์„ธ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์†์— ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ํ™•๋Œ€
[SMM ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์‹œํ™ฉ] ์˜ค๋Š˜ SHFE ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋งˆ๊ฐ ํ›„ COMEX ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ•œ ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, LME ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ํ•˜๋ฝํญ์ด 1.7% ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ COMEX2607-LME ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ๋Š” ํ†ค๋‹น 300๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ, COMEX2610-LME ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ๋Š” ํ†ค๋‹น 500๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 232์กฐ ๊ด€์„ธ ๊ด€๋ จ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•œ ์†Œ์‹์€ ์•„์ง ์—†์œผ๋ฉฐ, LC ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„๊ต์  ํ™œ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์›€์ง์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
US Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its December policy - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)