Is Support for Copper Price Gains Sustainable? SMM Exclusive

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Oct 25, 2016 15:46
SHFE copper prices unexpectedly rose October 25 after remaining weak for a long period, and price gains were the most significant since July 13 as of 1:55 pm October 25, SMM reports.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 25 (SMM) - SHFE copper prices unexpectedly rose October 25 after remaining weak for a long period, and price gains were the most significant since July 13 as of 1:55 pm October 25, SMM reports.

SMM Exclusive: What’s Factor Behind Big Rise in China Base Metal Market on Tuesday?

Spot goods available were limited. Imports were low due to yuan’s devaluation, despite higher SHFE/LME copper price ratio. Meanwhile, traders slowed supplies recently.

SHFE copper inventories are now almost the lowest for the year, and demand is stable.

Spot premiums jumped to a 1-year high, also lending support to copper prices.

Copper staged the least significant price gains this year, so will attract more capital, SMM said. SHFE copper will have room to rebound in the near term.

Most analysts see SHFE copper rise to 38,500 yuan per tonne, according to an SMM survey of domestic futures companies.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn. 

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
East China inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, strengthening downside support for Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]
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East China inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, strengthening downside support for Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
East China inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, strengthening downside support for Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]
East China inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, strengthening downside support for Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]
[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in the Shanghai region at 70,800 mt, down 12,300 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in the Jiangsu region at 16,300 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday. Inventory in the two regions in east China totaled a reduction of 16,400 mt, with destocking exceeding market expectations. Supply side, due to the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, port arrivals of ex-China cargoes have decreased, and combined with some shipping schedule delays, imported copper has provided relatively limited supplementation to the spot market. Demand side, after copper prices experienced a slight correction last week, downstream dip-buying demand was released. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between consecutive months once widened, enhancing suppliers' willingness to sell and accelerating market cargo turnover, jointly driving a significant inventory decline. Intraday buying sentiment rebounded to some extent, but quotes for standard-quality copper still required successive downward adjustments before transactions could occur, reflecting that downstream buyers' acceptance of high premiums remains limited. Overall, against the backdrop of significant destocking in east China inventory and low imported arrivals supporting premiums, while downstream buyers mainly engage in dip-buying and just-in-time procurement and suppliers' willingness to sell persists, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow, with the overall center likely to gradually stop falling and stabilize. The room for further significant declines is relatively limited.
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๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ „ ์ตœ์ข… ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž์˜ ๋น„์ถ• ์–ต์ œ [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]
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๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ „ ์ตœ์ข… ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž์˜ ๋น„์ถ• ์–ต์ œ [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ „ ์ตœ์ข… ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž์˜ ๋น„์ถ• ์–ต์ œ [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ „ ์ตœ์ข… ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž์˜ ๋น„์ถ• ์–ต์ œ [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]
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๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Ÿ‰, ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 19,700ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
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๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Ÿ‰, ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 19,700ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Ÿ‰, ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 19,700ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Ÿ‰, ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 19,700ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash News] 8์›” 24์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€, SMM์˜ ์ „๊ตญ ์ฃผ์š” ์ง€์—ญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Œ๊ทน ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ์›”์š”์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 19,700ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ 114,200ํ†ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 8,800ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๋‚œ์ฃผ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์กฐ์ •๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ด์ „์— ์–ต์ œ๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ํ’€๋ ค ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฐฝ๊ณ  ์ถœ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ „๊ตญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Œ๊ทน ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ์˜ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ ๋ชปํ•œ ๊ฐ์†Œ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์›์ธ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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Is Support for Copper Price Gains Sustainable? SMM Exclusive - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)