SHANGHAI, Sep. 6 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About 40% of them expect spot tin in Shanghai to rise further to RMB 128,000-130,000/mt. Most tin smelters have low stocks on hand. SHFE tin has gained investor favor recently. Hence, spot prices will see more gains. LME tin stocks remain near record lows. The US dollar index took a hit after disappointing US non-farm payrolls dampened chance of US rate hike in September. So, LME tin will climb further to USD 19,800/mt, with support at USD 19,200/mt. SHFE 1701 tin will follow LME tin up to RMB 127,500-130,000/mt.
Another 40% expect spot tin in Shanghai to fall back to RMB 125,000-126,500/mt. Some tin mines in Yunnan’s Gejiu have shown signs of resuming production along with rising tin prices. The monsoon in Myanmar will end soon. Hence, tin ore supply will become ample. LME and SHFE tin are in oversold territory, meaning price declines are on the way. LME tin will fall back to USD 18,700-19,200/mt, and SHFE 1701 tin will drop to RMB 123,500-126,000/mt.
The rest 20% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 126,500-128,000/mt. SHFE and LME tin will lose upward momentum after continuous gains, but have found strong support from tight supply and a weaker US dollar. Most suppliers in domestic spot tin market are unwilling to sell at lower prices. LME tin should fluctuate between USD 19,000-19,400/mt, and RMB 125,500-129,000/mt for SHFE 1701 tin.