SHANGHAI, Mar. 24 (SMM) – Where is the peak for aluminum prices in 2016? SMM analyses from three aspects – supply, consumption and cost – at the recent Copper&Aluminum Summit in Shanghai.
This year’s price peak will probably occur in the first half of the year since new aluminum capacity will be released mainly in the second half, Liu Xiaolei, SMM aluminum analyst predicted at the summit. Mr Liu sees SHFE aluminum moving down to 9,500-13,000 yuan per tonne in 2016, citing cost declines as the major drag, although supply growth is estimated to be slower than consumption growth.
Consumption growth of the light metal will slow to 4-5% in 2016 from 10% in 2015, Liu estimated.
Aluminum Extrusions, Plate and Strip for Construction Use
Demand from property market in second and third-tier cities will grow slower this year, while demand for rural areas and infrastructure sector will see sustainable growth.
Aluminum Foil
Heavy destocking pressure in domestic air-conditioner market will prevent air-conditioner foil demand from growing markedly. Demand from packaging and electronics sectors will remain strong, though. Aluminum foil exports will be affected by anti-dumping.
Aluminum Wire & Cable
Bidding volumes for UHV projects soared to 687,000 tonnes in 2015 from over 400 tonnes in 2014. Orders secured last year are not due for delivery until this year or even next year. So, demand outlook still looks bright this year.
Industrial Aluminum Extrusion
Demand from high-speed rail, rail transit and shipbuilding sectors will grow steadily.
Primary Aluminum Alloy
Trend of lighter car bodies means there is still room for grow for primary aluminum alloy consumption.
Collections of Base Metal Stories at 2016 SMM Summit
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