SMM April 15 update:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices were quoted at premiums of 40-190 yuan/mt against the front-month 2604 contract, with an average premium of 115 yuan/mt. Today was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2604 contract largely traded in the range of 102,200-102,950 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2605 contract traded in the range of 102,250-103,100 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 100-30 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2604 contract ranged from a loss of 390 yuan/mt to a loss of 250 yuan/mt.
Today, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.65, down 0.09 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.63, down 0.05 MoM.. At the opening of early trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 10-80 yuan/mt against the 05 contract, with SPCC-ILO, HMG-B, and Lufang quoted at premiums of 30-80 yuan/mt, Jinchuan ISA, Tiefeng, and Jinchuan ISA Yongchang quoted at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted at ex-factory premiums of 40-30 yuan/mt. High-quality copper Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun plate were quoted at premiums of 70-90 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 90-80 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, prices saw no significant changes, with Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC traded at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to officially shift to quoting against the 2605 contract. Market structure side, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts ranged from 100-30 yuan/mt. Suppliers who had established long arbitrage positions under the previous backwardation structure are more inclined to hold positions for delivery to capture the spread gains under the current structure, with limited willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing some support for spot premiums. Demand side, copper prices rose again today, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance with limited acceptance of current price levels, leading to more cautious procurement. Additionally, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the last trading day; a concentrated release of warrants could exert temporary downward pressure on spot premiums. Overall, under the dual effects of support from the price spread structure and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow.
