[October 8 SMM lead Internal Morning meeting record] Holiday lead trend strongly led Shanghai lead station to Wanqi

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the US government is considering delisting Chinese companies listed on the US stock exchange, which will be a serious escalation of trade tensions between the two countries.

The United States was allowed on Wednesday to impose import tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European goods on illegal EU subsidies for Airbus, a move that threatened to trigger a trade war between Europe and the United States at a time when the global economy was faltering. An official in the office of the US Trade Representative said the US response was to impose a 10 per cent tariff on EU aircraft and a 25 per cent tax on other European goods such as agricultural and industrial goods from October 18 onwards.

The US Commerce Department reported that US consumer spending rose 0.1% in August, personal income rose 0.4%, savings rose to 1.35 trillion US dollars, and the core PCE price index rose 0.1% from the previous month, up 1.8% from the same period last year. At a time of continuing trade tensions, US consumer spending barely increased in August, and business investment remained sluggish, prompting economists to lower their economic growth forecasts for the third quarter. However, the figures released by the Commerce Department may not mean that a recession is imminent, as the US unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly 50 years, and Americans have huge savings buffers and sound income growth, which still support consumer spending.

The Institute for supply Management (ISM) said the national manufacturing index fell 1.3 points to 47.8 last month, the lowest level since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, as trade tensions continued to depress exports, adding to concerns in financial markets about a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter.

The ADP National Employment report showed that private jobs increased by 135000 in September, and the August data were revised downwards, showing an increase of 157000 private jobs instead of the 195000 previously announced, suggesting that trade tensions that put pressure on manufacturing could spread to the labor market.

The index of services activity in the United States fell to 52.6 in September from 56.4 in August, the lowest since August 2016, suggesting that trade tensions are spreading to the broader economy. In addition, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 4000 in the week to September 28, to 219000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Commerce Department also announced that factory orders in the United States fell 0.1 percent in August from the previous month, and some in the market expected a series of weak economic data that could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this month. to maintain the longest economic expansion in history;

The US non-farm payrolls rose 136000 in September, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 per cent in September, close to the lowest level in 50 years, and job growth was modest, suggesting that while trade tensions hit manufacturing, the slowing economy may temporarily avoid a recession, while the jobs report is a reminder of the downside risks to the longest economic expansion in US history.

Unemployment in the 19 eurozone countries fell to 7.4% in August, the lowest since May 2008, as services appeared to offset weakness in manufacturing, an encouraging sign for economic growth in the region, Eurostat said.

Manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth month in a row in September, the latest in a series of depressed economic data, according to China's official purchasing managers' index, (PMI), released last Monday.

The (WTO) cut its forecast for global trade growth by more than half this year and now expects global merchandise trade to grow by 1.2 per cent this year, up from 2.6 per cent in April. it also said further tariffs and retaliation, economic slowdown and disorderly Brexit could make the trade situation worse;

This week's focus will be on economic and trade talks between the two trade leaders, attended by Chinese Vice Premier Liu he, US Trade Representative Lightheitzer and Treasury Secretary Nooqin, which are scheduled to begin on Thursday.

Fundamentals:

Environmental protection production limit news continues to ferment, early Shanghai lead once strong rush, but near National Day, the disk is still in a state of reduction, traders are also on holiday, spot quotation is very few, Shanghai market Sands, southern 1910 contract discount 10 yuan / ton to flat water quotation, Jiangsu and Zhejiang market gold, Wanyang lead to 1910 contract discount 20 yuan / ton flat water quotation, at the same time electrolytic lead refinery mostly to long single transaction; In the aspect of recycled lead, on the last trading day before the festival, the market of recycled lead was light and the quotation was scarce; at the same time, the downstream reserve warehouse basically ended, and the market transaction situation was weak.

Lead price:

During the holidays, the trend of Lun lead is relatively strong, from a technical point of view, is still in the long upward trend, we should pay attention to whether it is sustainable after the return of lead in Shanghai.

SMM1# lead prices are expected to rise 50-100 yuan per ton today.