[SMM Rangkuman Mingguan] Permintaan Kurang Memuaskan; Harga Baja Silikon Berorientasi Butir Kemungkinan Tetap Lesu Minggu Depan

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Headwinds Eased, SS Stopped Falling and Strengthened; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Followed Gains, Downstream Acceptance of High Prices Limited According to SMM on September 18, SS futures shot up further and strengthened. After the US Fed's rate hike landed, nonferrous metals futures rebounded collectively, and SS stopped falling and strengthened in tandem. As of this morning's close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 13,700 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as SS futures strengthened, stainless steel spot offers followed the gains. Although inquiries and transactions recovered somewhat from the sluggish pattern seen earlier this week, downstream acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited. In addition, demand had already been largely released in the early stage of the rebound after hitting bottom, so overall transactions remained stable. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2611 was reported at 13,675 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 595-795 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled unedged 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, the overall market was dominated by a weak atmosphere. The nonferrous metals sector collectively hit bottom, dragging SS futures down continuously, with prices briefly dipping to a low of 13,290 yuan/mt during the session. Following the US Fed's rate hike, previously accumulated macro headwinds were released in a concentrated manner and largely exhausted for the time being, and market pessimism eased marginally, ...

Tawaran HRC India untuk Eropa naik 40–50 USD/ton minggu-ke-minggu menjadi sekitar 640 USD/ton FOB India, sementara indikasi Eropa Utara meningkat 20–30 USD/ton menjadi 715–730 USD/ton CFR. Namun, penjualan ekspor tetap lesu, tanpa transaksi baru yang terkonfirmasi karena importir menilai ketersediaan kuota dan waktu pengurusan bea cukai. Data UE terbaru yang ditinjau SMM menunjukkan kuota HRC India yang relevan telah terpakai 98%, dengan sisa 2.991 ton. FTA India–UE akan meningkatkan total akses baja tahunan India menjadi sekitar 1,64 juta ton, tetapi alokasi preferensial tambahan sebesar 694.853 ton baru tersedia setelah perjanjian mulai berlaku sehingga tidak meringankan kendala pengurusan bea cukai saat ini. Volume di luar kuota tetap dikenakan tarif 50%. Kargo India tujuan Eropa dipahami menargetkan jendela kuota berikutnya, meskipun pengurusan bea cukai tidak dijamin. Selisih CFR–FOB sebesar 75–90 USD/ton terutama mencerminkan biaya pengangkutan dan logistik, bukan tambahan realisasi pabrik. Di Asia Tenggara, HRC domestik Vietnam terdengar sekitar 540 USD/ton, dengan ongkos angkut India–Asia Tenggara 20–25 USD/ton, tetapi tidak ada penjualan baru India yang terkonfirmasi. Indikasi ekspor billet India turun 15–20 USD/ton menjadi sekitar 470 USD/ton FOB India, dengan pembeli membeli secara selektif. HRC domestik terdengar pada 625–631 USD/ton (60.000–60.500 INR/ton) EXW Mumbai dan 667 USD/ton (64.000 INR/ton) ex-yard Mumbai, tidak termasuk GST. Secara basis EXW yang sebanding, batas bawah tidak berubah minggu-ke-minggu, sementara batas atas turun 1.500 INR/ton.