[Ulasan Mingguan SMM Pasar India] Indikasi Ekspor Meningkat Sementara Harga Domestik Stabil

According to reports, the Hyundai Motor Union (Metal Workers' Union Hyundai Motor Branch) launched a full strike on the 21st due to a deadlock in this year's wage and labor negotiations. This is the first time the union has taken such action since 2016. As a result, all production lines at the Ulsan, Jeonju, and Asan plants were shut down that day. Because both day-shift and night-shift workers went on strike for 8 hours each, the production lines were actually suspended for 16 hours that day. Currently, the labor and management sides are locked in a tug-of-war over three demands: raising bonuses, reinstating employees fired for union activities, and extending the retirement age. The negotiations remain deadlocked, with differences yet to be resolved.

HRC prices strengthened this week with recovering trading sentiment. In terms of supply, maintenance on rolling lines saw relatively small changes, and overall HRC production increased slightly. On the demand side, HRC apparent demand continued to deteriorate, with the off-season impact still evident. High temperatures and rainy weather remained the main bearish factors, and demand improvement awaits verification in early September. On inventory, SMM data showed social inventory of HRC across 86 national warehouses (large sample) stood at 4.4982 million mt this week, up 54,900 mt WoW, up 1.24% WoW. By region, markets in east China and north China saw inventory buildup, while markets in south China, central China and northeast China saw slight destocking. Looking ahead, the first round of coke price hikes is expected to be implemented next week, iron ore prices may consolidate with small fluctuations, and HRC cost support is expected to strengthen. However, the supply-demand imbalance is still accumulating, weighing on HRC prices with insufficient upward momentum. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to consolidate in the 3260-3360 range next week.

[India] Pasar baja India tetap stabil pada hari Jumat, dengan pembeli bersikap hati-hati. Indikasi ekspor billet bertahan di 470 USD/ton FOB India, meskipun tidak ada kesepakatan yang dikonfirmasi pada level ini. Penawaran HRC India ke Vietnam tetap di 520–525 USD/ton CFR, berbanding dengan indikasi pembeli sebesar 505–510 USD/ton CFR. Secara domestik, HRC berada di 609 USD/ton (58.100 INR/ton) EXW Mumbai, sedangkan billet tetap di 453 USD/ton (43.200 INR/ton) dikirim Mandi Gobindgarh, 449 USD/ton (42.800 INR/ton) EXW Mumbai, dan 415 USD/ton (39.600 INR/ton) EXW Raipur.