Menjelang Peralihan Kontrak, Sentimen Menunggu Meningkat; Perdagangan Pasar Tetap Lesu [SMM Tembaga Spot Tiongkok Utara]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2608 contract, and the backwardation spread between the 2608 and 2609 contracts remains at a high level of 590-700 yuan/mt. Under SMM methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, and spot prices against the 2608 contract are still expected to show relatively deep discounts on Monday. As the pricing basis switches to the 2609 contract on Tuesday, spot premiums and discounts will show a notable apparent recovery. Delivery side, as of the morning close, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was still about 9,480 lots; as of August 13, SHFE registered copper warrants stood at 27,200 mt. Some suppliers continued to register eligible material as warrants, and material will remain partly split between the spot and warrant sides. Demand side, some downstream enterprises have seen a recovery in operating rates, and end-user clients mostly price against the 2609 contract; their acceptable copper price center has moved up from previous levels, and their bids are mostly concentrated near 107,000 yuan/mt. However, this price level is still some distance away from current futures prices, and actual demand release is expected to remain largely need-based. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract next Monday are expected to remain at deep discounts, and spot prices against the 2609 contract will rebound noticeably after the contract rollover; downstream trading and the flow of deliverable material still need to be monitored going forward.

Tambang Condestable milik Rio2 Limited di Peru memproses lebih dari 700.000 ton bijih pada triwulan II 2026, menghasilkan 9,30 juta lb tembaga, 4.451 oz emas, dan 74.374 oz perak yang terkandung dalam konsentrat. Kadar bijih rata-rata adalah 0,66% tembaga, 0,24 g/t emas, dan 3,88 g/t perak. Kadar tembaga lebih rendah dari rencana akibat dilusi internal yang lebih tinggi di area penambangan tertentu, terutama pada Juni, sementara perolehan tembaga tetap sedikit di bawah ekspektasi karena kandungan oksida yang lebih tinggi di dekat dasar zona oksidasi. Condestable mempertahankan panduan produksi setara tembaga terbayar Februari–Desember 2026 sebesar 21.500–23.500 ton. Rio2 juga terus mengembangkan uji coba sortasi bijih, pabrik filtrasi tailing, dan kajian pendahuluan untuk memperluas kapasitas pemrosesan menjadi 10.000 ton per hari, dengan peralatan sortasi bijih skala pilot yang diperkirakan tiba sebelum November 2026. Cadangan dan sumber daya saat ini mendukung perkiraan umur tambang 14 tahun.