China's CCL Exports Rise 2.05% MoM, 15.03% YoY in May 2026

In May, China's single-month exports of copper cathode were 19,900 mt, down 22.45% MoM and 41.14% YoY. Despite the sharp monthly export pullback, combined with earlier performance, cumulative exports from January to May reached 275,200 mt, with cumulative YoY growth still maintaining a positive 23.35%.

In May, China's copper cathode imports rebounded to 282,300 mt, up 4.38% MoM and up 10.20% YoY. The continuous rebound in imports in May effectively alleviated the tight supply of some spot copper in China. However, from a longer-term perspective, cumulative imports from January to May stood at 1.1443 million mt, still down 15.69% YoY, reflecting a structural adjustment in the overall import flows of long-term contracts and spot cargo this year compared to previous years.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, today's Shanghai social inventory recorded 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu's inventory recorded 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a slight inventory buildup trend. According to SMM, the buildup was mainly due to arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargo, increasing supply-side pressure somewhat. In terms of market performance, intraday trading was overall sluggish. Suppliers quoted premiums from parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt in early trading, but transactions failed to follow up, leading to successive downward revisions of quotes. By the second session, actual transactions for standard-quality copper had fallen to around a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt. Some suppliers were offloading cargo, further dragging down the center of market premiums. Overall demand was weak, with downstream users only making just-in-time procurement, lacking the willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, under the combined pressure of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.