North China downstream restocked copper cathode raw material

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at an average discount of 200–140 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,605 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.