[SMM Iron & Steel] Brazil-US Pig Iron Export Negotiations to Kick Off This Week

DCE iron ore futures trading was in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract, I2609, eventually closed at 764 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting; steel mills purchased as needed with few inquiries, and spot trading volume was low as of now.

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

[Iran] Iranian steel billet export offers remain stable at 410-420 USD/tonne FOB or FCA border, primarily shipped from Bandar Abbas to Oman (with freight rates around 40-45 USD/tonne). However, impacted by surging sea freight costs and heightened security risks in the Middle East Gulf region, buyers have lowered their counterbids to 400-405 USD/tonne FOB. Market participants report that at least three vessels are currently waiting to berth, and overall port activity remains subdued. The hindered seaborne trade has prompted export activities to shift toward road transport; recently, approximately 20000 tonnes of billets were traded at 385 USD/tonne EXW for July delivery, with 130x130 mm billets seeing the strongest demand. SMM anticipates that as long as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, seaborne exports will remain constrained, and short-term regional trade flows will continue to lean heavily on land transport to neighboring countries.