[SMM Weekly Review] Cobalt Market Prices Generally Trended Downward This Week

Refined Cobalt:

Spot refined cobalt prices fluctuated lower this week, being under pressure. In terms of supply, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 422,000 yuan/mt, while trader quotation basis continued within the previous range, maintained between parity and a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued to restock on an as-needed basis, maintaining strict control over raw material inventory. The price decline this week was mainly driven by the continued weakening of cobalt salt prices. Currently, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salt has been largely eliminated, and the reverse dissolution arbitrage window has completely closed. In the short term, the market may continue to face a volatile and pressured landscape, and the stabilization of refined cobalt prices still depends on cobalt salt prices returning to stability.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

Cobalt intermediate product prices edged down this week. Supply side, mainstream miners and traders still held firm on quotations near $26/lb; however, as the cobalt salt market remained persistently weak, downstream smelters adopted a more cautious purchasing stance, and tender transaction prices from some miners had pulled back to $25.1/lb. Regarding shipments, Q1 2026 quota approvals continued to progress slowly due to complex procedures, compounded by tight logistics capacity in the DRC and low priority given to cobalt raw material transportation, causing the arrival of large volumes of cargo to be repeatedly delayed. In the short term, demand-side support remained weak, and prices may continue to move sideways; for the market to stabilize and strengthen going forward, it still needs to await a recovery in downstream demand and a rebound in cobalt salt prices.

Cobalt Sulphate:

Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall this week. Supply side, the quotation range of mainstream brands shifted down to 87,000-93,000 yuan/mt, and some smelters and traders, constrained by cash flow pressure, opted to sell at reduced prices, with low-priced resources in the market touching 85,000-86,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises were primarily focused on destocking, with purchase willingness remaining subdued, and market transactions were limited to sporadic just-in-time procurement. The core reason behind this sustained price weakness lay in the strategic mismatch between sellers and buyers: on the demand side, LCO enterprises' procurement intensity fell short of expectations, and with top-tier players in their interim report disclosure period, inventory control tightened and stockpiling enthusiasm remained low; on the supply side, some enterprises, driven by cash flow pressure or interim report performance considerations, continued to adopt a strategy of selling at reduced prices, which further intensified bearish market sentiment and, through the cost side, dragged down black mass payables and absolute cobalt sulphate prices, forming a negative feedback loop. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices may remain in the doldrums, and a stabilization and recovery in the market still awaits the substantive release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Yang Lianting 021-51595835

Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827