Insight into Provincial Profit Landscape: New Release of Zinc Smelting Profit Model by Province [SMM Analysis]

SMM, May 29:

The zinc market in May 2026 is experiencing unprecedented structural pressure. Import zinc concentrate TCs have fallen to -$56.25/dmt, while domestic TCs have dropped to 400 yuan/mt in metal content on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the sulphuric acid export control policy has continued to take effect in May, with some 98% smelting acid in south China already declining by around 300 yuan/mt, directly impacting a key by-product revenue source for smelters. LME zinc inventory of around 100,000 mt stands in stark contrast to China's social inventory of over 260,000 mt, and the pattern of "tight ore, loose ingot" has made smelters the most squeezed segment in the industry chain. Against this backdrop, the true level of smelting profits can no longer be measured simply by the rough calculation of "ore prices minus zinc prices minus costs" — fluctuations in by-product revenues from sulphuric acid and minor metals often determine the boundary between profit and loss for enterprises, making them a key variable that is underestimated in current market analysis.

To further enrich zinc industry chain data services, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) began publishing daily data for the refined zinc enterprise profit model (domestic ore) on May 29, 2026. The data display starts from January 2025 and is updated every business day, covering daily profits across eight major zinc smelting regions: Inner Mongolia, Henan, Gansu, Hunan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Sichuan. Building on the existing profit framework, this SMM upgrade adds two key indicators — sulphuric acid revenue and minor metal revenue — and outputs two complete profit metrics: profit including sulphuric acid, and profit including both sulphuric acid and minor metals. Data can be queried independently by province, facilitating horizontal comparison of profit changes across smelters in different production regions.

Data Usage:

Track smelting profit trends to assess smelters' willingness to operate and supply elasticity
Horizontally compare profit differences across provinces to identify regional spot arbitrage opportunities
Combined with TC changes, assist in forecasting the bargaining dynamics between the ore side and the smelting side
Support industry research and market analysis

Data Access:

You can log in to the SMM data terminal (URL: https://data-pro.smm.cn/terminal) and view the relevant data under the cost and profit section of the Zinc - Refined Zinc category. Data is updated on business days to ensure you have access to the latest market information.

Thank you for your support and trust in SMM. We look forward to your feedback and suggestions. If you have any questions or need further assistance, please feel free to contact me. Contact information: Jane, 021-51666876./hanzhen@smm.cn