Geopolitical Optimism Expectations Heat Up, Pushing Copper Prices to Rise [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 93,030 yuan/mt, dipped to 92,550 yuan/mt in early trading before the center fluctuated upward, touching a high of 94,030 yuan/mt after the day session opened, then the center moved lower, ultimately closing at 93,660 yuan/mt, up 0.68%. Open interest stood at 5,272 lots, down 2,753 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 9,164 lots, up 2,407 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the US-Iran agreement has not yet been finalised. Trump stated that the deal was largely reached but there was no rush to sign, demanding Iran give up highly enriched uranium. Israel opposed the agreement, preparing for high-intensity operations and demanding the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear facilities. The next round of talks may be held on June 5. Market expectations for a US-Iran deal warmed, exerting a bullish impact on copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported sources remained relatively low, domestic source arrivals edged up, and the tight supply pattern improved marginally. Demand side, consumption was suppressed by rising copper prices, with overall performance remaining weak. Inventory side, as of Monday, May 25, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 2,300 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, with total inventories up 105,500 mt compared to the same period last year at 139,700 mt.

SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 105,520 yuan/mt. Calculated based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 93,660 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,836 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -316 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that narrowed from the previous day.