New Fed Chairman Reiterated Inflation Bottom Line Upon Taking Office, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Higher Then Pulled Back [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, May 25, 2026

The SHFE tin market opened higher then fluctuated downward. The morning session opened at 426,000 yuan/mt and closed at 422,530 yuan/mt. The most-traded contract's overall center rose 1.22%. LME side, due to the overseas Spring Bank Holiday, the London Metal Exchange was closed for the day. Its final closing price last Friday was $54,470/mt, with the center edging up.

On the macro front:

(1) US Secretary of State Rubio revealed that the draft agreement with Iran on ending the conflict has gained support from multiple regional countries. The two sides reached agreement in principle on the opening of key straits and the handling of related sensitive nuclear materials. A potential agreement is expected to be formally signed in the near term, with geopolitical tensions releasing certain easing signals. However, the US leader stated that "the two sides have not fully reached a deal, and the US is in no rush to reach an agreement."

(2) Waller was sworn in. In his address, he emphasized that he would lead a "reform-oriented" central bank institution, focusing on adjusting the policy framework based on past experience, and reaffirmed his determination to combat inflation. Meanwhile, another core governor of the central bank stated that the current policy stance is to keep interest rates stable in the short term; if inflation expectations deviate from the target and become unanchored, rate hikes would be necessary. The internal policy tone leans toward prudence.

In terms of supply, the market is facing multiple considerations on the news front. On one hand, residual effects from earlier news regarding Indonesia's strategic resource controls persist. On the other hand, a high-profile public health event recently broke out in the DRC, and neighboring countries have temporarily closed some border crossings to strengthen health controls. Currently, core mining areas maintain normal production, but cross-border logistics efficiency has been partially constrained by health inspections. Considering that the logistics cycle from local dispatch to China typically takes around 45 days, if border health controls tighten, this could partially disrupt the pace of raw material supply next month.

Spot market side, amid wide fluctuations in futures, the spot market largely maintained a cautious stance. Last week, downstream end-users released some material turnover demand, primarily focused on securing immediate order production, and market transactions were relatively mediocre. Facing futures fluctuating at highs, traders mostly chose to hold prices and wait, with spot premiums for mainstream brands remaining stable, concentrated in the 1,000–1,500 yuan/mt range, and actual market transactions trending mediocre.

Overall, the market is currently in a period of interplay between news and macro expectations. Although supply-side disruptions from various sudden public events and rumors have been frequent in the short term, before substantive volume reductions materialize, the core trading logic still revolves around macro policy guidance on forward liquidity and funding costs. As the new US dollar policy framework is gradually established and rate expectations remain tight, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue its range-bound pattern in the short term, with the futures center potentially testing further downward. Subsequent attention should remain on changes in macro funding sentiment.