Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened high at $1,983/mt, fluctuating downward overall, gradually declining during the session to a low of $1,961/mt, and finally closing at $1,961.5/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down $19.5/mt or 0.98%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,480 yuan/mt, came under pressure and fluctuated downward after the opening, hitting a low of 16,395 yuan/mt during the session, with losses narrowing slightly toward the close, and finally closing at 16,410 yuan/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%.
On the macro front:
Trump: Iran has limited time, and the US may take action against Iran again. Vance: Significant progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, but the US has also prepared a "Plan B." Mediators believed that US-Iran negotiations made little progress, with Iran insisting on its core demands unchanged. Google launched the Gemini 3.5-series models. NATO set a deadline: if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by early July, it plans to deploy forces for escort operations. Sources: Indonesia plans to tighten national controls on commodity exports. Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. According to the CSRC website: Yangtze Memory Technologies initiated IPO guidance.
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate weakly. Additionally, as supplies flowed back into the market after delivery, suppliers increased their quotations. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed, and spot market trading activity improved relatively. On the secondary lead front, smelters held prices firm on shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, while tax-exclusive prices were lower, and downstream enterprises selectively purchased.
Inventory: On May 19, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 264,200 mt. On May 18, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions pulled back MoM.
Lead price forecast for today:
Overnight, the non-ferrous metals sector was overall in the doldrums, with SHFE lead and LME lead weakening in tandem. Domestic fundamentals, the pressure from lead ingot social inventory accumulation eased somewhat, and coupled with secondary lead enterprise operating rates remaining at low levels, this provided some support for lead prices. However, on the other hand, both primary and secondary smelters successively lowered scrap battery purchase prices, weakening cost-side support for lead prices, and downstream consumption remained sluggish, putting pressure on lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the lead market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
![SHFE and LME Lead Prices Weakened in Tandem, Futures Slightly Lower with a Minor Decline [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TmYox20251217171721.jpeg)