[SMM Analysis] Macro Under Pressure and Supply Improvement Create Dual Suppression, Tug-of-War Between Upstream and Downstream Intensifies

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices declined with fluctuations compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower today at 190,000 yuan/mt, briefly dipping to an intraday low of 186,800 yuan/mt after the opening before rebounding. During the morning session, it moved sideways within the range of 191,000-194,000 yuan/mt. Around midday, it briefly surged to 194,900 yuan/mt but failed to hold, then quickly pulled back below the average price line. It weakened further toward the close, ultimately settling down 3.57% at 188,800 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 18,931 lots.

In the spot market, as prices continued to decline, downstream purchase activities increased, though some enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with most transactions being spot order restocking driven by rigid demand. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed growing sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with some enterprises maintaining their willingness to sell on spot orders at prices above 200,000 yuan/mt.

Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained active. Lithium carbonate prices continued their downward trend today. Macro perspective, overnight silver futures plunged 4.52%, with the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors under overall pressure. Market risk appetite declined significantly, and capital withdrew from the commodity sector, with lithium carbonate futures falling in tandem. Meanwhile, on the lithium carbonate supply side, previously concerning disruptions to lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe showed signs of easing. Yahua Group confirmed on May 13 that its Zimbabwe lithium concentrates export procedures had been completed and shipments had commenced. Sinomine Resource Group also indicated that lithium concentrates from its Zimbabwe mine had been progressively shipped from the mine. The improved expectations for ex-China lithium concentrates supply alleviated short-term tight supply expectations for lithium concentrates to some extent. Overall, under the dual pressure of weakening macro sentiment and improved supply-side expectations, although market inquiries and actual transactions remained active, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream persisted, and prices may still face adjustment pressure in the short term.