Metals Fell Broadly, LME Tin Dropped Nearly 3%, LME Zinc Hit a Nearly Four-Year High, LME and SHFE Nickel Led Declines, COMEX Silver Fell 6% [Overnight Market Review]

SMM May 15 News:

Metals market:

Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%.

Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly.

Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%.

Overnight precious metals:COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%.

As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

China:

[PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY]PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan.

[PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor]To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays).

US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded.

US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data)

According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data)

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike.

Data:

Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data)

According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn)

Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)