[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On May 8, nickel prices continued their downward trend as the U.S. and Iran clashed again in the Strait of Hormuz

SMM Nickel News, May 8:

Macro and market news:

(1) The US Central Command issued a statement saying that a US Navy guided-missile destroyer group intercepted an unprovoked attack launched by Iran while transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman, and immediately took self-defense countermeasures. Targeted strikes were also conducted against Iranian military facilities.

(2) According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of April 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,410.5 billion, up $68.4 billion from the end of March, an increase of 2.05%. In April 2026, affected by macroeconomic data, monetary policies and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index declined, and global major financial asset prices showed divergence.

Spot market:

On May 8, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged at -800-200 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract opened lower and continued to decline, extending the downward trend, closing at 146,450 yuan/mt, down 1.94%.

Trump explicitly stated on the evening of May 6 that a US-Iran deal was "very likely," with the negotiation framework largely finalised, passage through the Strait of Hormuz expected to resume, and the sulphur supply crisis likely to be resolved, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt, with the center likely shifting downward, and the key support below coming from the rigid cost support brought by Indonesia's new HPM policy.