SMM Nickel Flash: High-Grade NPI Sentiment Index Down to 3.05, Upstream Improves, Downstream Declines

[SMM Nickel Flash] On the upstream side, news about Indonesian nickel ore costs and windfall tax policies supported the willingness to hold prices firm, smelters generally held back from selling with a bullish outlook, and high-grade NPI quotes rose in tandem. On the downstream side, steel mills showed relatively positive purchasing sentiment before the holiday. Although most steel mills maintained a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, the market overall still held up well.

On May 6, 2026, following a brief morning suspension, one of the Indonesia's stainless steel mill raised export quotations across all series by $30/mt. According to SMM analysis, the hike is driven by the convergence of positive holiday-period policies and the introduction of "windfall tax" expectations, which have funneled cost premiums directly to downstream products. Indonesian 304 CRC FOB offers are now positioned at approximately $2,227/mt. Bullish sentiment is expected to ripple across Asia as the solidified cost floor pressures other regional producers to follow suit.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 06 May , 2026