[SMM Analysis] Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuated Upward on April 27

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices rose with fluctuations compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened higher today at 182,000 yuan/mt, surged to 184,800 yuan/mt in the early session before pulling back with fluctuations, moved sideways around the average price line in the midday session, and weakened slightly in the late session to close at 180,600 yuan/mt, up 1.71%. As of the close, open interest increased by 11,200 lots compared to the previous working day.

In the spot market, as prices moved higher, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some adopting a post-pricing model. The psychological willingness-to-buy price was concentrated around 175,000 yuan/mt, and only a few with rigid restocking needs were willing to accept the 180,000 yuan/mt level. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed further strengthened willingness to sell spot orders, with offer prices continuing to move up. Traders became more cautious in purchasing due to increasing margin call pressure, and the pace of spot circulation slowed down somewhat. On the news front, political fluctuations in Mali triggered market concerns over further tightening of ore supply from West Africa. Combined with the expectation that concentrated commissioning of new LFP capacity in H1 is expected to boost raw material procurement, these factors jointly pushed up futures today. In addition, recent spodumene concentrates prices continued to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants, which also provided a floor for lithium carbonate prices.

Looking ahead, the supply side presented a mix of bullish and bearish factors: Huayou in Zimbabwe announced the successful shipment of lithium sulfate, which may ease some supply anxiety in the short term; however, disruptions from mining license renewals in Jiangxi persisted, geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East pushed up diesel costs, and some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirmed cost increases — although actual mining has not been affected for now, medium and long-term supply elasticity remains constrained. Demand side, LFP capacity release in Q2 and the peak season for new car model deliveries are expected to continue boosting lithium carbonate demand. Overall, cost support and demand expectations are resonating, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.