Teck Resources Released Q1 Production Expectations, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.24 Friday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237.5/mt, touched a low of $13,235/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $13,423.5/mt before the center moved lower, ultimately closing at $13,310/mt, down 1.19%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, up 1,083 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,820 yuan/mt, touched a low of 102,620 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center rose to a high of 103,620 yuan/mt, ultimately edging down to close at 103,170 yuan/mt, up 0.38%, with trading volume at 47,000 lots and open interest at 217,000 lots, down 324 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On April 22 (Wednesday), Canada's Teck Resources released its Q1 earnings report, stating that revenue increased significantly in Q1 due to production growth and higher commodity prices, exceeding analyst expectations. The company expects copper production in 2026 to range between 455,000-530,000 mt, maintaining its 2026 copper net cash unit cost guidance at $1.85-2.2 per pound; zinc production is expected to range between 410,000-460,000 mt.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 23, SHFE copper 2605 contract moved downwards after a higher opening. The opening price was 103,710 yuan/mt, after which prices touched a high of 103,900 yuan/mt, then fell, reaching a low of 102,110 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 102,260 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 180-110 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 380-300 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during last night's night session, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably, with intraday purchasing sentiment pulling back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt, suppliers showed firmer sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing some support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan weakened, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area, and available spot cargo in the east China market is expected to increase going forward, potentially putting pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt MoM, with the destocking pace slowing down significantly, as current copper prices have limited appeal to downstream buyers. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 23, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,210 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp rise in copper prices intensified wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players, and trading activity was sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On April 23, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $66/mt (price range $63-71/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $37/mt (price range $32-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 23, the 11:30 futures closing price was 102,260 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 0 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 23, copper scrap prices remained unchanged MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.64, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.33. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,593 yuan/mt, down 225 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,590 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices retreated from highs, many secondary copper rod enterprises and scrap-derived copper anode enterprises were in no rush to purchase, waiting for copper prices to stabilize before placing procurement bids. Meanwhile, copper scrap traders had to continuously lower their prices. In the afternoon, copper prices stabilized and rebounded slightly, and intraday trading in the copper scrap market was moderate.
Prices: On the macro front, stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating regional confrontations heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, and a stronger US dollar index put copper prices under pressure. Fundamentals side, on the supply side, imported copper arrivals remained steady while domestic supply stayed tight; on the demand side, downstream procurement sentiment was cautious, with restocking mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 23, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 4,300 mt WoW to 258,900 mt. Overall, upside room for copper prices was expected to be limited today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]