Delayed Vote Counting in Peru's Election Raised Concerns, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.22 Wednesday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,286/mt, with the center fluctuating upward to a high of $13,330/mt in early trading before declining, touching a low of $13,139/mt near the end of the session, and ultimately closing at $13,154.5/mt, down 0.68%, with trading volume at 15,000 lots and open interest at 279,000 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,300 yuan/mt, with the center rising to a high of 102,810 yuan/mt in early trading, then declining toward the end of the session to a low of 102,060 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 102,100 yuan/mt, down 0.04%, with trading volume at 39,000 lots and open interest at 198,000 lots, down 1,148 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On April 21 (Tuesday), analysts said investors in Peruvian copper and gold mines were concerned about the vote-counting process in the country's presidential election. The counting had slowed down due to allegations of irregularities. However, analysts expected the mining industry to weather the election with limited direct impact. Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer. The country held its general election on April 12, but authorities expected the final results to be released by mid-May, when it would be determined which candidate would face conservative frontrunner Keiko Fujimori in the June 7 runoff. Analysts said the delay in vote counting was testing the patience of investors. The Peruvian government had been courting these investors, hoping they would release tens of billions of dollars in mining investments that are currently stalled.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 21, the SHFE copper 2605 contract showed a trend of declining, rebounding, and then continuing to edge lower. The opening price was 102,460 yuan/mt. After opening, prices continued to fall, dropping to 102,080 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices rebounded to 102,290 yuan/mt, then traded between 102,000 yuan/mt and 102,200 yuan/mt, before declining again to a low of 101,880 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 101,950 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged between 150 yuan/mt and 90 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further from the previous day, reaching 200 yuan/mt, with the theoretical arbitrage window opening. According to SMM, some suppliers have begun relocating cargo from Shanghai warehouses to the Guangdong region to capture the regional price spread. If spot premiums in Guangdong continue to remain strong, cross-regional cargo transfers will effectively divert available cargo from the Shanghai market, potentially providing marginal support to local spot discounts and even boosting spot premiums in Shanghai and other regions. Demand side, after consecutive declines in copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment recovered slightly, but overall procurement remained driven by rigid demand. Overall, supported by the combined effects of cross-regional arbitrage diversion and the inter-month spread structure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount today. Attention should be paid to the transmission effect of Guangdong premiums on the east China market going forward.
(2) Guangdong: On April 21, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory ended its 24-consecutive-day decline and edged up, but suppliers still held prices firm on shipments, and overall trading activity was mediocre.
(3) Imported copper: On April 21, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $68/mt (price range $63-73/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $66/mt (price range $62-70/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $37/mt (price range $32-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 21, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 101,950 yuan/mt, down 830 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 5 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 21, copper scrap prices remained unchanged MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.65, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.32. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,066 yuan/mt, down 845 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,420 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back, many secondary copper rod enterprises bought the dip, but copper scrap suppliers showed lukewarm willingness to sell, and overall market trading was mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump stated it was highly unlikely to extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran, and the escalating US-Iran tensions intensified market concerns. In addition, the market broadly awaited whether US-Iran peace talks could advance and the outcome of Warsh's confirmation hearing, and copper prices moved sideways. Fundamentals side, on the supply end, imported copper arrivals remained stable, while domestic copper supply showed a tight pattern; on the demand end, downstream acceptance of copper prices improved, with continued just-in-time procurement. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue moving sideways at elevated levels today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]