[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 13 – April 17), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 507.4 yuan/gram and closed at 526.25 yuan/gram, up 1.8 yuan/gram or 0.34% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 544.65 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 507.4 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 382.25 yuan/gram and closed at 384.1 yuan/gram, down 4.15 yuan/gram or 1.07% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 402.25 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 380.75 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 17,688 lots with a total turnover of 9.37 billion yuan and open interest of 15,422 lots, an increase of 119 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,322 lots with a total turnover of 3.637 billion yuan and open interest of 7,415 lots, an increase of 199 lots WoW.
Geopolitical conflicts: A ten-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday. Trump seized the opportunity to claim that Iran had agreed not to possess nuclear weapons and that US-Iran talks could resume this weekend. He stated that "Iran has agreed to almost all demands" and that a deal would cause oil prices to plunge. However, Iranian officials have not yet responded.
US Fed monetary policy: As US-Iran tensions eased temporarily, expectations for interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat. Data side, although US CPI surged significantly, core CPI came in below expectations, reflecting mild underlying inflation, which weakened expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. A Fed rate hike remains a low-probability event.
Trade and tariffs: After reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end in April may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. Tax rebate pressures are exacerbating fiscal burdens and reinforcing the weak US dollar logic. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that tariff levels may be restored by early July. South African President Ramaphosa accepted the credentials of new US Ambassador Bozell, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at the end of April, the US may rely on the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply.
In 2026, China's fiberglass industry may accelerate the shift from platinum to palladium applications. Nornickel estimated that if trials go smoothly, China's demand will reach 800,000 ounces, accounting for approximately 10% of global supply. Event-wise, continued focus should be placed on changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be given to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector and the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at the end of April. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling remain key variables, and caution is warranted against fluctuations and opening gaps.
