Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty Persisted, the Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Stabilized [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 91,020 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it exhibited a "W" pattern, touching a low of 90,390 yuan/mt, before the center fluctuated upward. Near the end of the session, it touched a high of 91,110 yuan/mt and ultimately closed at 91,010 yuan/mt, down 0.49%. Open interest stood at 6,792 lots, a decrease of 42 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,240 lots, an increase of 384 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Trump claimed to have secured a commitment from Iran for over 20 years of denuclearization. The US and Iran may resume negotiations over the weekend, temporarily targeting an interim agreement, while the US military simultaneously expanded its shipping blockade against Iran. Lebanon and Israel reached a 10-day ceasefire. The US Fed reiterated that interest rate cuts require inflation to pull back to 2%, and the market expected approximately 9 basis points of interest rate cuts for the full year. Geopolitical uncertainties persisted, and copper prices maintained stable movement. Fundamentals side, on the supply end, imported copper arrivals maintained the pace of prior arrivals, while domestic copper arrivals remained relatively low. On the demand end, downstream enterprises primarily made just-in-time procurement, restocking on an as-needed basis.

SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 102,290 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 91,010 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 102,841 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -551 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that narrowed compared to the previous day.