[SMM Analysis] Off-Season Stability Game Intensifies, Rhenium Market Maintains Pattern of Fluctuating at Highs

This week, China's rhenium market overall stabilized at highs, with market trading characterized by "upstream testing shipments, downstream mainly waiting and seeing, and actual transactions remaining weak." The short-term tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified. The industry was in a traditional weak off-season, but structural shortages persisted, limiting downside room. Rhenium prices are expected to hover at highs going forward.

I. Prices Were Generally Stable

This week, rhenium market price fluctuations were relatively small, trading was sluggish, market participation was notably divergent, and producers maintained normal industrial production schedules with quotations basically stable. Retail participants mostly made inquiries and bought the dip, with weak willingness to purchase at high prices, and actual transactions were scarce. The ammonium perrhenate market continued the stalemate from the prior period. Multiple rounds of tenders previously failed as raw material enterprises had low willingness to sell at low prices, and transactions remained sluggish.

II. Upstream-Downstream Supply-Demand Tug-of-War

Upstream price-holding stance loosened, with small-volume shipments to test the market. Previously, the rhenium market saw a prolonged stalemate between upstream and downstream. Upstream raw material suppliers generally held prices firm and held back from selling, compounded by the supply rigidity of rhenium as a by-product of copper-molybdenum smelting, keeping tradable supply tight. This week, however, this pattern loosened. Most raw material suppliers shifted strategies, opting to release small volumes to test market absorption capacity. Tradable supply of ammonium perrhenate and metallic rhenium increased slightly, but overall shipments remained controlled, with no concentrated sell-off observed.

Downstream restocking was completed, with a wait-and-see stance prevailing and rejection of high prices. Downstream enterprises had stable rigid demand, but purchase willingness was weak. This was mainly because order launches at the beginning of the year drove relatively strong demand, prompting concentrated downstream restocking, and most enterprises' raw material inventory could support short-term production. Facing high-priced ammonium perrhenate, downstream players were unwilling to purchase at elevated levels. Therefore, wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, with some enterprises having no restocking plan for the time being, waiting for price pullbacks.

III. Market Outlook: Fluctuating at Highs with Limited Downside Room

In the short term, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the rhenium market is expected to continue, with limited downside room for prices. Upstream shipments remain controlled and supply rigidity is intact. Downstream rigid demand is stable, and despite resistance to high prices, willingness to restock at lower prices persists. Coupled with structural shortage support, rhenium prices are more likely to rise than fall.