On March 26, 2026, as tensions in the Middle East remained unlikely to ease in the near term and the two sides failed to reach an agreement on negotiations, coupled with persistently high oil prices and mounting inflation concerns, the nonferrous metals sector as a whole came under pressure. The most-traded SHFE tin contract fell rapidly after opening this morning and then briefly stabilized in a rangebound pattern, but dragged by suppressed macro sentiment and insufficient fundamental support at the bottom, prices weakened again in the afternoon. Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 348,790 yuan/mt, down 0.98%. LME trading has recently remained relatively subdued overall and stayed in the doldrums. Three-month LME tin was last quoted at $44,475/mt, down 0.77%.
The market's core focus currently remained on developments in the US-Iran situation. If tensions continue to escalate, strength in crude oil prices will further entrench global inflation stickiness. Elevated inflation expectations will trigger market concerns that high interest rates may be maintained over the long term. The rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has tightened global liquidity. Under the dual pressure of a strong US dollar and risk-off sentiment, the US dollar-denominated nonferrous metals sector bore the brunt, and tin prices were also passively put under pressure as a result.
Trading in the spot market remained light today. When tin prices were previously in the 320,000-330,000 yuan/mt range, downstream enterprises had already released a round of concentrated restocking demand on dips. At present, willingness to follow up with purchases in the futures market was moderate, with most participants digesting existing inventory and maintaining stable operations.
Overall, tin price movements in the short term are still expected to be dominated by macro logic. Tin prices are expected to maintain wide swings in the 330,000-360,000 yuan/mt range in the near term. If the macro situation materially eases later, improving market sentiment, together with technical repair demand after the futures pullback, may drive a short-term rise in tin prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to how geopolitical developments unfold and whether downstream buyers will make substantive large-scale purchases after prices pull back to the lower end of the range.
