Tin Market Weakened After Fluctuating at Highs, Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Intertwined Bullish and Bearish Factors [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary, March 16, 2026

Last week, the tin market in and outside China showed a pattern of wide swings at high levels followed by a downward shift in the center. The most-traded SHFE tin contract repeatedly fluctuated around the 390,000 yuan threshold, while LME tin futures were also in the doldrums. Bullish and bearish sentiment intertwined in the market, and price fluctuations were deeply driven by shifts in macro sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, the market maintained a tight balance structure, but expectations are changing: on the supply side, expectations for recovery emerged, progress was made in dewatering deep mine shafts in Myanmar, expectations for supply recovery there tended to stabilize, Indonesia's exports gradually recovered, and domestic smelters are expected to gradually resume production in March. The sentiment premium previously injected by geopolitical conflicts was gradually retraced; on the demand side, however, recovery was relatively slow. Although downstream solder and electronics enterprises had resumed operations one after another after the holiday, the traditional “Golden March and Silver April” consumption season performed slightly below expectations. Demand transmission from end-user home appliances and electronics was relatively slow, persistently high prices continued to suppress enterprises’ willingness to stockpile, and downstream players mainly consumed inventory and made small-lot just-in-time procurement, leaving overall transactions in the spot market sluggish. From a macro perspective, strong PMI data in the US intensified price pressures, complicating expectations for the US Fed's interest rate cut path and supporting the US dollar. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and diverted capital flows, leading to repeated swings in macro sentiment and exacerbating tin price fluctuations. Considering the contradiction between expectations for supply recovery and weak follow-through in physical demand, coupled with relatively high tin inventory in and outside China, tin prices lacked sufficient upward momentum. SHFE tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations in the short term, and the price center may gradually shift downward. Investors need to closely monitor the actual pace of downstream work resumptions, the strength of restocking demand, and substantive changes on the supply side in Myanmar, Indonesia, and other regions.