Weak Supply and Demand Fundamentals, N-Shaped Rise in Iron Ore Prices [SMM Brief Commentary]

DCE iron ore rose in an N-shaped pattern, and the most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784.5 yuan/mt, up 2.28% from the previous futures session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by 5-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, and steel mills’ procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall spot market transactions were average.

This week, both iron ore supply and demand weakened. SMM’s total global iron ore shipments came in at 27.84 million mt, down 7.01 million mt MoM, a decline of 20.1%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell notably last week due to cyclones, while shipments from South Africa, India, and other countries also declined. China’s total iron ore arrivals were 23.07 million mt, down 1.21 million mt MoM, a decrease of about 5%.
 
In addition, blast furnace production resumptions were progressing relatively slowly, leading to weak iron ore demand. However, given structural tightness in some iron ore resources and rising transportation costs, downside support for ore prices remained relatively solid. Therefore, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate upward this week, mainly in both the overseas market and domestic market.